000 AGXX40 KNHC 160600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SE WATERS EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES HIGH PRES 1014 MB OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM AN ATLC RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS W ALONG 27N TO E FL COAST. THE GULF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND BUILDS WNW FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL WATERS WED. BY THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM W FL TO E CENTRAL TX. A REINFORCING FRONT/NLY SURGE ARRIVES WED NIGHT AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO ALONG 25N E OF 90W FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL MAX AT 15 KT ALONG TX COAST...AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 KT N OF FRONT ON THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT IN 15 KT RANGE. OTHERWISE WINDS IN 5-10 KT RANGE THIS WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W THIS MORNING IS MOVING W AT 18 KT AND THIS MOTION WILL MOVE IT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. ELY WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND NE-E 10-15 KT WIND OBSERVED W OF THE WAVE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED THEN RELAX TO 15-20 KT WED AND THU. BY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALSO MOVING W AT 18 KT...SHOULD MOVE W TO ALONG 55W AT SUNSET TUE...INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE WED AFTERNOON... AND TO ALONG 75W SUNRISE SAT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT WITH ASSOCIATED TSTMS ONLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS. SW ATLC...HIGH PRES NEAR 28N65W 1018 MB HAS A RIDGE W TO FL COAST AT 27N. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR 28N55W LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY E TO W ALONG 26-27N. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS S TO ALONG 24N AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE TO THE EXTREME NW WATERS WED MORNING THEN STALLS ALONG 31N THU AND THU NIGHT DIPPING A FURTHER S TO ALONG 28N FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE NEAR THE FRONTAL REMNANTS. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ON STRENGTH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST SLY WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ONLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.