000 AGXX40 KNHC 150504 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VERY QUIET IN THE GULF THANKS TO A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 90 NM S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W. SHIPS...BUOYS AND A RECENT QSCAT PASS SUPPORT 10 KT VARIABLE BUT MAINLY ELY WINDS N OF 26N AND 10-15 KT NE/E FLOW S OF 26N WITH SEAS NEAR 3 FT OVER THE S WATERS AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AS THE WEAK HIGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ATLC SFC RIDGE ...MEANDERS OVER THE N WATERS. BY THU...THE ATLC RIDGING BEGINS TO RETREAT E ALLOWING SE TO S RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-73W. E TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ALONG AND TO THE E OF WAVE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...20-25 KT...AND EXPAND W TO ABOUT 80W LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. THE LONG DURATION OF THE ENHANCED WINDS WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 12 FT OR SO OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS WITH E SWELLS PROPAGATING TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WINDS ARE LIGHT N OF 16N AND NE/E TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 16N. AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE HERE AS WELL...20-25 KT S HALF LATE MON THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC... A FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE WATERS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED BEHIND IT NEAR 33N71W. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT CAUSING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS ...ASSOCIATED NE SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO 4-7 FT OVER THE FAR NE CORNER. QSCAT AND SHIP DATA STILL INDICATES AN AREA OF 15-20 KT E WINDS S OF 22N ENHANCED BY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 24N E OF 71W. ELSEWHERE 10-15 KT (OR LIGHTER) NE/E WINDS IS THE THEME ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALLOWING SE TO S WINDS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AREA WIDE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NE WATERS. THESE WINDS SHIFT S TO SW OVER THE N HALF TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY WED...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS IS PAINTING AN AREA OF SW 30 KT WED AND THU...BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE AT 20-25 KT GIVEN ITS IN THE EXTENDED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.