000
AGXX40 KNHC 071610
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT SW LINE FROM FL BAY TO 
NE TX COAST WITH SPOTTY REPORTS TO 8 FT. EXPECT GRADIENT TO 
RELAX A TAD TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED THEN INCREASE AGAIN WED 
NIGHT AND THU. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS FL OVER NE WATERS 
WITH WINDS BECOMING 5 TO 10 KT ALONG AXIS. NORTHERN EXTENSION OF 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND MON AND MAY 
ENHANCE CONVECTION.

SW N ATLC...HIGH PRES 1024 MB NEAR 30N76W ATTM EXPECTED TO 
MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL 
FLUCTUATE AT 5-10 KT AROUND RIDGE WITH SOME NE AND E SWELL 
MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS AT 3-5 FT OVER NORTHERN WATERS. E 
WINDS 15-20 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE EVERYWHERE S 
OF RIDGE THROUGH THU. UNCERTAINTY IS AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 
25N71W WITH A TROUGH S TO WINDWARD PASSAGE IS NOW MOVING W AT A 
GOOD CLIP AND CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN INTERMITTENT SURFACE 
TROUGH. THERE IS A SLIGHT NE-SE WIND SHIFT INDICATED ON SURFACE 
DATA THIS MORNING...AND CONVECTION IS FLARING NEAR CYCLONE AND 
ALONG ITS TROUGH TO THE S...SO WILL MENTION SURFACE FEATURE 
THROUGH SUN AND MOVE IT W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODELS 
LOSE THE FEATURE BY MON...BUT I WONT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT 
CONVECTION RESULTS IN A THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT IN 
FUTURE MODELS RUNS. UPPER DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND W PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVER NW BAHAMAS AND SE CONUS 
UNTIL CYCLONE PASSES TO THE W...THEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION  
WILL TAP UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT INCREASE 
IN PRECIPITATION. 
 
TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN 
WITH AT MOST A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT AND A FEW TSTMS. ANOTHER 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THAT MOVE 
WAVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT...INTO SW CARIBBEAN TUE... 
AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS WED. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC HAS A LITTLE BETTER SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING SO 
REPOSITIONED TO ALONG 36W. I WILL ESTIMATE ITS PROGRESSION AT 15 
KT FOR NOW...AND THIS WILL PUT WAVE ALONG 55W LATE TUE NIGHT AND 
INTO E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WELL N OF 
AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADES WITH THE NORMAL 20-25 KT 
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE NE 
OF BAHAMAS IS ADVECTING DRY AIR SLOT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE 
TAPPING INTO A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL 
AMERICAN CONVECTION...AND ADVECTING THE MOISTURE NE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS 
ARE FLARING.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.