000 AGXX40 KNHC 311811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MON)...RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA WITH E WINDS 10-15 KT S OF THE AXIS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE S TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND WILL EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN THROUGH MON. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART AS THE RIDGE SINKS S WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WINDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. LONG-TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH THU)...RIDGE WILL BE FROM 30N65W TO S/CENTRAL FLORIDA MON NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR 31N/32N BETWEEN 70W AND THE GEORGIA COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE...OR IF IT DOES IT WILL BE BARELY...SO IS NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE WIND FCST. BY TUE THE FRONT LIFT FARTHER N AS A WARM FRONT AND THE RIDGE MOVES BACK N TO NEAR 31N BY WED. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SW PART WILL STRENGTHEN WED AND THU BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL THEREFORE PAINT A SWATH OF SE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO NOAA BUOY 42056...WHICH REPORTED A 1-MIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT AT 1500 UTC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR N OF 16N W OF 84W BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. WINDS WILL STILL LIKELY BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT OFF THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FURTHER SUN THROUGH MON. LONG-TERM...SE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MON NIGHT WITH HIGHEST SEAS STILL LINGERING NEAR 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE/SRN YUCATAN. WINDS HERE DIMINISH FURTHER TUE THROUGH THU BUT THEN THE PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 66W AND 77W WED AND THU AS BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRADES WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH BUILDING EASTERLY SWELLS. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN BELIZE WITH THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE RADII EXTENDING OVER THE FAR SRN MIDDLE GULF ZONE...S OF 22N. LIKE THE NW CARIBBEAN WARNING...THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING AS ARTHUR WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION. THEREAFTER...ARTHUR WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN THEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY RESTRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY MON. HAVE THEREFORE PLACED A TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADLINE OVER THE SW GULF FOR MON THROUGH TUE ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD CONCEIVABLY INCREASE BY SUN NIGHT. A WARNING WOULD NOT BE REQUIRED UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FCST. LONG-TERM...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON NIGHT AND TUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE ARTHUR MOVES INLAND NEAR VERACRUZ AROUND TUE EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE SW GULF ON WED WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE E GULF ON THU WITH A LARGE AREA OF E/SE 15-20 KT EXPECTED E OF 90W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N W OF 84W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AMZ084. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.