000 AGXX40 KNHC 301849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AND LOW SEA STATES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND GULF AS WELL AS THE ERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THIS IS A RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF WHAT WAS EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA NOW INLAND OVER NRN HONDURAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRES AREA TO THE N TO BRING MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OVER THESE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SAT. 1200 UTC NWP MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WAVE AND LOW WILL TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...THEN PHASE OUT TUE. INTERESTINGLY...THE 1200 NAM KEEP A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE FAR SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS MORE OR LESS DEPICT A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE. GFS ENSEMBLE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK SCENARIO AS WELL. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE MODELS IN BRINGING THE WAVE AND OR LOW W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL KEEP SIMILAR WINDS AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THE SRN WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BUT BEGIN DECREASING TREND ON MON AND LASTING THROUGH WED. BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REPORTING RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE WITH RANGES IN THE 2-3 FT FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE SRN SECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN RELATION TO THE HIGHER WINDS WHERE SEAS ARE 4-5 FT...AND MAYBE UP TO 6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST WAVEWATCH THREE GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING WAS RIGHT ON TARGET WITH SEAS IN THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR WATERS NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE IT WAS CLOSE TO 2 FT UNDONE. 1200 UTC UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE IS MORE REALISTIC WITH SEAS HERE SO WILL WILL USE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE GULF IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH SUN AND REGULAR WAVEWATCH FOR ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY WED...IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW...ATLC RIDGE FORTIFIES ITSELF OVER THE THE NRN WATERS AS INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SRN PLAINS BRINGING AN INCREASE TO SLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND REMNANT LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDING SW INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 80W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH WINDS MORE SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 20 KT BETWEEN 80W-82W FROM 15N-21N COINCIDING WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED NEAR 17N82W HAS BEEN REPORTING SE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 7 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO POSSIBLY GUST UP TO 30 KT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IN AND NEAR TSTMS COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 12N W OF 81W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS WAVE TRACKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TO THE 10-15 KT TUE AND WED. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS UP 8 FT...BUT SHIFT SOME TO THE E MON THROUGH WED WHERE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KT MON AND TUE AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT WED. WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN AT 10-15 KT MOSTLY E-SE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT NE-E IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 50W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND. IT MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE SRN WATERS THERE. SW N ATLC... RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N...WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM FROM ABOUT 27N65W SW TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT E ON SUN MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OF THE SE UNITED STATES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION SUN...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEAR 31N SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS FRONT NUDGES CLOSE TO THE RIDGE. LATEST RUNS OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT DISSIPATES TUE AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE W ALONG 29N. THE TROUGH SHIFTS E OF 65W TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING AS WEAK LOW FORMS JUST NE OF AREA ALONG THE TROUGH. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRIEFLY BE KICKING UP WINDS AND SEAS IN THAT AREA. WAVEWATCH THREE MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH REPORTED SEASTATE THERE...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BY WED...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 29N OR 30N WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO WINDS AND SEAS. A WEAK TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER ON WED. 00 UTC RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWED A LOW APPROACHING 31N NEAR 75W WED BEFORE TURNING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER THE 12 UTC RUN DOES NOT SHOW IT ANYMORE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.