000 AGXX40 KNHC 210605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT)...ATLC RIDGE IS STILL SUPPRESSED WELL S OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PSN FROM 24N65W TO CUBA WHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND DEEP SOUTH. SWLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N BUT THIS AREA WILL SHIFT E OF 75W THROUGH THE DAY THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NE PART TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY BRUSH ACROSS 30N/31N THU/THU NIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY NWD...REACHING FROM 25N65W TO S FLORIDA THU NIGHT. BY THEN WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE. LONG-TERM (FRI THROUGH SUN)...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO S FLORIDA ON FRI WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS 30N. THE FRONT WILL SURGE S OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS BRING THE FRONT TO 28N ON SAT THEN FROM 26N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS ON SUN WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LAGGING BY ABOUT 12 HRS. WILL LEAN ON THE FIRST SOLUTION FOR THE FCST SINCE THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON A FASTER PATTERN. MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 20 KT WHICH STILL COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST 6-9 FT WITH NE SWELLS E OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. IF THE WINDS ARE LITTLE STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT...AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS HINTING AT...SWELLS COULD GROW INTO THE 9-11 FT RANGE W OF 75W. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...ATLC RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS CUBA WITH WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE 20 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT N ON THU WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN EFFECT HERE WILL BE FOR SE WINDS W OF 83W TO INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT THEN 20-25 KT THU AND THU NIGHT. NWW3 GUIDANCE IS FINALLY SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OFF BELIZE/YUCATAN...IN LINE WITH WHAT THE UKMET WAVE MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 9-11 FT BY THU NIGHT W OF 84W. AS FOR THE LINGERING SMOKE...VIS IMAGERY FROM TUE SHOWED THE PLUME W OF 87W DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ELY WINDS. STILL COULD SEE PATCHY SMOKE TODAY NEAR THE BELIZE/ HONDURAS COASTS UNTIL WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. LONG-TERM...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH SE WINDS 20 KT CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT N...THEN RETREAT E ON SAT/SUN WHICH SHOULD SUBDUE THE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE N OF 16N ESPECIALLY ON SUN. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...WRN END OF THE ATLC RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE DAY. SE/S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AS LOW PRES DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...THEN EXPAND FARTHER E AND SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY THU NIGHT A LARGE AREA OF SE WINDS 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED W OF 87W. WITH THIS COMES SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT NEAR THE NE MEXICO COAST THU NIGHT. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SW AND SRN MIDDLE GULF AND WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE ON THU AND LEAD TO GREATER MIXING/DISPERSION. LONG-TERM...A FAIRLY HEALTHY PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO FRI WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KT FEEDING FROM THE YUCATAN TO TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED FROM S/CNTRL FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA AND AS LOW PRES WEAKENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WRN GULF ON SAT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED SE/NW ACROSS N FLORIDA ON SAT AND PUSH ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LINE WITH THE FASTER TIMING ADVOCATED BY THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA WITH NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT NE OF THE BNDRY LATER IN THE DAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.