000 AGXX40 KNHC 201756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT)...SFC RIDGE RATHER SUPPRESSED ALONG 24N/25N WITH SWLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE N OF THE AXIS AS LOW PRES OVER VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE DELMARVA BY THIS EVENING. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 28N STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING E WED AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT ON THE NRN FRINGES OF THE ZONE BY WED/WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER S/CNTRL PARTS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. ON THU RIDGE BUILDS WWD INTO THE AREA AS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS EXITS THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA. LONG-TERM (FRI THROUGH SUN)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESS BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND PUSHES THE FRONT TO ALONG 29N/30N BY LATE SAT AND ALONG 27N65W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ENHANCED NE SWELLS PRIMARILY W OF 75W TO FLORIDA. SWELLS MAY REACH 10-11 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...SFC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS CUBA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MODERATE/FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG TRADES TO 25 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST TONIGHT. THE COLOMBIAN TRADES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON WED AS THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS W...AND AS A RESULT SE WINDS INCREASE OFF THE YUCATAN COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATED A PLUME OF SMOKE HOVERING OFF THE HONDURAS/BELIZE COAST S OF 18N W OF 86W AND THE E THIRD OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN FCST UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WED AND WED NIGHT. LONG-TERM...SFC RIDGE LIFTS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ON THU THEN RETREATS INTO THE CNTRL ATLC BY SAT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS/OFF YUCATAN THU AND FRI THEN ABATE SOME ON SAT DUE TO LOW PRES OVER MEXICO/TEXAS. SUB-NORMAL TRADES DOMINATE THE REST OF THE REGION AS PROXIMITY OF FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING WWD OVER THE REGION. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE CONFINED TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO WED. SE/S WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND LOCALLY 25 KT SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W WED NIGHT AND THU IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND W OF 85W BY THU NIGHT. SE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS EVENT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8-9 FT OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU AND FRI. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA HAS SPREAD NWD WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PROBABLE SE OF THE LINE MARKING THE OLD FRONTAL BNDRY. AS WINDS OVER THE SW GULF SHIFT SELY LATER TODAY...EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE NW GULF WATERS WED AND THU IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. LONG-TERM...STRONG PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT LATE FRI AND SAT WITH SE/S WINDS OF 15 KT...LOCALLY 20 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER E OF 87W DUE TO THE GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE WWD EXTENT OF ATLC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE FL PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE E GULF ZONE BY LATE SUN WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.