000 AGXX40 KNHC 110629 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE COAST AROUND 20 MPH...AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 25N WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A 0020Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT FLOW EAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 25 KT. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY MON MORNING. THE FRONT GLIDES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N TONIGHT...BEFORE RIDING NORTH AS WARM FRONT ON MON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE EMERGING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY THU...ALTHOUGH MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. THIS IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. 20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL. FURTHER EAST...WELL DEFINED LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD NEAR 45W/46W. TRADES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAY SLACKEN A LITTLE MON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL BE BACK TO A STEADY 20 KT BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...REACHING 55W BY LATE MON. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF 10N...SO IMPACT MAY BE LIMITED TO THE AREA NORTH OF GUYANA AND EAST OF TRINIDAD. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADES TO INCREASE TO 25 KT AND DELIVER INCREASED MOISTURE TO FEED SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY MIDWEEK...THE WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO VENEZUELA IN PHASE WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...SO ASIDE FROM BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA...IT'S NO FACTOR CONCERNING CARIBBEAN TRADES. SW NORTH ATLC...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A DEEP LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE DELAWARE COAST LATE TODAY. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 25N WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS TO HISPANIOLA COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY INCREASE BY LATE THU BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER IMPULSE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.