000 AGXX40 KNHC 261749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME NW GULF CURRENTLY...BRINGING A LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER EASTERN TEXAS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO WESTERN TEXAS WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY LATE SUN. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS MEXICAN COAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE MON MORNING FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE...ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL NAM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MON. THE FRONT WEAKENS INTO TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT ALSO WILL SLOW THEN STALL SE OF THE AREA AS UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT ON BUOY...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING...WITH THE ONLY HINT OF WINDS NEAR 20 KT FLOW NEAR THE USUAL SPOT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND BETWEEN CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH PUERTO RICO. TRADES WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING...AND IT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NWD OR DISSIPATE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. MEANWHILE...OVER THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW. SW N ATLC... SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LIGHT ELY WINDS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. TRADES S OF THE HIGH MAY REACH 20 KT FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. BY LATE SUN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY MON NIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.