000 AGXX40 KNHC 080621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 88W/89W WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N88W WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GULF AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AN AREA SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF...FL STRAITS AND KEYS. SFC REFLECTION OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N87W SWWD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FEATURE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL BROAD AREA OF SE RETURN FLOW NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH BUOYS/CMANS REPORTING WINDS OF 15-20 KT. IN THE SHORT TERM WEDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF INTO WED. THIS RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESS OVER TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE PRESS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SE TO S WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF BY THU. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS TREND AND WITH WIND SPEEDS...20-25 KT IN GENERAL AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST. NWW3/UKMET WAVE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT IN THIS REGIME. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI WITH N TO NE WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS IS THE SOLE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING 30 KT WINDS AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. SW N ATLC... 1010 MB SFC LOW OFF THE FL E COAST NEAR 29N78W IS MOVING ENE 15 KT AND RESULTING IN N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE NE FL COAST IN ITS WAKE. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD OF THE LOW ESSENTIALLY MOVING THE LOW TOWARD BERMUDA BY WED NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH 30 KT NLY WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. WILL FAVOR THE GFS GIVEN THE 30-35 KT WINDS DEPICTED ON THIS EVENINGS 2336 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH VERIFIED LAST NIGHTS GFS FCST WINDS. THE LONG TRAJECTORY OF THE WINDS AND CAA ALSO FAVORS HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESS WEDGING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALLOWS NE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY LATE THU AND FRI WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. RIDGE SHIFTS EWD SAT AND WINDS VEER TO THE E AND SE BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... OVERALL WIND DISTRIBUTION IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNCHANGED PER THE 2340 UTC QUIKSCAT AND SUBSEQUENT 0240 UTC ASCAT PASSES WHICH STILL DEPICT SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER S AND SW CARIBBEAN NEAR TO COLOMBIAN COAST. THE HEIGHTENED WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SAT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NOTED IN THE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB