000 AGXX40 KNHC 070708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT 42020 NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI SHOW WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE FORCE AT 30-32 KT SUSTAINED. EXPECT GALE IN FULL FORCE BY 09Z. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED N OF 27N WHERE MID/UPPER FLOW OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL SWEEP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE ELY FLOW SUN INTO TUE...EXCEPT FOR FRESH SELY FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CARIBBEAN...FRESH ELY TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS FROM TROPICAL ATLC WATERS JUST E OF THE ANTILLES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE SE EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED E OF BERMUDA. THE HIGH PRES STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TODAY THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRES COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST WEAKENING IN THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. MEANWHILE...THE SAME FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT DOWN THE YUCATAN COAST TO GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SRN U.S. THIS WEEKEND... ALLOWING TRADES TO PICK UP A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS E. SW N ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTING N IN NW PORTION WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE DISRUPTED LATER TODAY AS SLY WINDS INCREASE E OF N FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWED GALE FORCE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT BUT REMAINS THE OUTLIER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS TREND OVER OTHER GLOBAL...REGIONAL...AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWING NEAR GALE SLY FLOW...WITH GALE FORCE GENERALLY N OF 31N. THE FRONT EMERGES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NWLY FLOW. THE FRONT SLOWS SAT THROUGH SUN AND STALLS BY MON FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS WELL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW SW AND MIDDLE GULF...GMZ080 GMZ082 GMZ084. FORECASTER MUNDELL