000 AGXX40 KNHC 050700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS ALOFT LIFT OUT OVER THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN RIDE N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THU. MODELS STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO NW GULF WATERS THU NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS STILL LOOK PROBABLE ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...ATLC HIGH PRES MAINTAINS ELY TRADES IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL...IN A SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND INLAND TERRAIN. A COLD FRONT MAY DIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT...AND GETTING POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR AS THE CAYMANS BY SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH NLY FLOW. SW N ATLC...STRONG SLY FLOW NE OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW SHUNTS EWD. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. SLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN E OF N FLORIDA AGAIN FRI AHEAD OF LOW PRES LIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OPERATIONAL GFS STILL SHOWS GALE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY ON SAT BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. WILL BLEND IN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL