000 AGXX40 KNHC 040738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE SE GULF BY EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND WED. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N E OF 90W AS A WARM FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...LIFTING OUT TOWARD FLORIDA THROUGH FRI. EXPECT A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS MEXICAN COAST...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI IN SW GULF. THIS SECOND FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOW THEN STALL OVER THE SE GULF AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...00Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT FLOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER MUCH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO BERMUDA...EASING THE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED...BUT INCREASE WINDS OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS ADJACENT TO LEEWARD ISLANDS. SE WINDS OVER FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE AGAIN THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT SAGS S AND EVENTUALLY STALLS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SW N ATLC...INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY N OF BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW. THE AREA OF STRONG SLY WINDS SHIFTS TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH WED AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 25N. THE FRONT STALLS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED NIGHT...THEN DRIFTS N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THU AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HEADING TO FRI CONCERNING STRENGTH OF SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS SHOWING 40 KT S TO SW FLOW BY MIDDAY FRI N OF 30N BUT GFS ENSEMBLE AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING THROUGH NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION FAVORED AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE FRI...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW INTO SAT OVER THE WATERS E OF N FLORIDA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW AND SW GULF...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER MUNDELL