000 AGXX40 KNHC 030706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 AM EST MON MAR 03 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM 26N65W TO THE VICINITY OF W/CNTRL CUBA AND WAS REINFORCED BY A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT TO ITS N EARLIER ON SUN. WINDS ARE ELY 20 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE BNDRY AND EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WILL SLIDE ALMOST DUE EWD TODAY AND TUE AND WILL ALLOW SLY FLOW TO INCREASE OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TODAY...BACK OFF JUST A BIT TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AND BECOME MORE S/SWLY BY TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EASE OFF THE N FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z) WITH WINDS BECOMING WLY AND DIMINISHING TO NEAR 20 KT W OF THE BNDRY. EXTENDED...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING THEN IMMEDIATELY STALLS FROM 31N77W TO CNTRL FLORIDA WITH PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DIMINISHING MARKEDLY. THE 00Z GFS LINGERS THE FRONT IN PLACE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT IT N AS A WARM FRONT ON THU BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST FRI. THIS SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 6-12 HRS QUICKER THAN THE GUN ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH BRINGS THE BNDRY N AS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING THU NIGHT. IT THEN HAS THE SECOND COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST ON FRI AS WELL...PUSHING IT PAST THE SE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI NIGHT. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE FOR A DAY 3-5 FCST...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE AT THIS POINT GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OVER THE GFS THE PAST FEW DAYS. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...THE EVENING QSCAT PASS BARELY MISSED THE AREA IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BUT WITH WHAT DATA IT GAVE NEARBY...COMBINED WITH A 33 KT REPORT FROM THE CRUISE SHIP "ISLAND PRINCESS" (ZCDG4) ABOUT 50 NM NE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA...THE AREA IS STILL OBSERVING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE WINDS MAY LAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE TRADES BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODERATE/FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUE NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES SHIFTS E AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. EXTENDED...THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS E BY WED WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 15-20 KT OVER THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN. TRADES STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY N OF 12N WED THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONGER SELY COMPONENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY THU NIGHT/FRI AS BROAD LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG/NEAR GALE RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN GULF TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CORPUS CHRISTI SHOWS A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ABOUT 2000 FT ABOVE THE SFC (950 MB) AND SOME OF THIS WIND IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SEA SURFACE OVER THE WRN GULF. A 0012 QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS LOCATED BETWEEN BUOYS 42002 AND 42020...AND THE FORMER OF THE TWO HAS A MOST RECENT REPORT OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 29 KT GUSTING TO 33 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT BUT UNTIL THEN COULD STILL BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS...AND WILL THEREFORE REFLECT THIS IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. AS FOR THE FRONT...THE RAW OUTPUT FROM THE GFS HAS IT JUST OFFSHORE BY 00Z WITH WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AND SURGING S/SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NW AND SW GULF SINCE CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN THE 2ND PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS WILL GET UP TO 40 KT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 45 KT OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MEXICO WHERE FUNNELING USUALLY OCCURS. THE GALE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND WILL LIKELY EXPIRE OVER THE NW GULF BY 18Z TUE AND OVER THE SW GULF BY 00Z WED. THE FRONT CONTINUES E TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT REALLY LOSES ITS PUNCH WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE NIGHT. EXTENDED...THERE IS NOW FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED...THEN ALREADY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SOMETIME ON THU ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GUN ENSEMBLE...SO WILL TEND TOWARDS THE LATTER TWO AND INDICATE INCREASING N/NE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ON THU...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST. BOTH ENSEMBLES SHOW WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE SW GULF. SINCE THERE IS STILL IMMENSE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE NW/SW GULF ZONES BUT REMAIN BELOW GALE. TRENDS CAN BE RE-ASSESSED BY THE DAY SHIFT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW AND SW GULF...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG