000 AGXX40 KNHC 021823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NW GULF WATERS...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND WEEK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. SLY FLOW OVER THE GULF IS INCREASING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WRN GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON. GOOD CAA ALONG WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT AND FUNNELING ALONG TERRAIN IN NE MEXICO...WILL ALLOW NLY FLOW TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT SQUALLS AS WELL AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY WED...AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHUT OFF UPPER SUPPORT TO THE FRONT ALLOWING IT TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY WED...WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING GULF WIDE. THE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER AS THE SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGS WEST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS ANOTHER LOW CENTER MOVING E...ONLY FURTHER S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A RETURN OF NEAR GALE FORCE NLY WINDS BY LATE THU. THE 00Z EURO MODEL EVEN SHOWS SOME SIGNATURE OF THIS...COMPLETE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NLY FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THU NIGHT. EXACT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE HOWEVER...WITH GFS ENSEMBLE RUN MUCH LATER...SHOWING THE STRONG NLY FLOW NOT UNTIL MIDDAY FRI. WILL TREND WINDS UPWARD STARTING THU IN WRN GULF AND KEEP IT BELOW GALE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE STRENGTH OF THE ELY TRADE WIND FLOW...PREDICATED ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG ELY WILL PERSIST INTO MON IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINOUS COLOMBIAN COAST. AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE TRADES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT INCREASE IN THE ATLC WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARDS. LARGE ELY SWELL ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT DIGGING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SW N ATLC...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH NE WINDS BETWEEN AND A WEAKENING TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONT IS APPROACHING INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FROM THE N...BUT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT DIGGING W THROUGH THE SE U.S. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD BERMUDA BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT EXITING TO THE E. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...NAM AND UKMET INDICATE 30 KT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLOSE TO 31N BY LATE TUE...A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE...00Z EURO...NOGAPS AND UKMET. SUFFICE TO SAY 25 TO 30 KT SOUNDS REASONABLE E OF N FLORIDA LATE TUE INTO WED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TAME AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. SLY FLOW MAY PICK UP AGAIN BY FRI N OF BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS S TO GENERALLY ALONG 24N FROM WED THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN