000 AGXX40 KNHC 011819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS MAINTAINING FRESH ELY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUN INTO MON...WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER W TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SUN NIGHT. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC...WILL ALLOW SELY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE INTO MON OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH E TEXAS TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY LATE MON...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE NE MEXICAN COAST AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE. IN ADDITION...SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH NLY SWELL. WED INTO THU...WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS S OF THE GULF...AND HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES PERSIST FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO MON...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE AREA DRIVING THE TRADES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. THE FRONT STALLS N OF 28N AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TRADES PERSIST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA ON TUE AHEAD OF LOW PRES DIGGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE SLY FLOW REACHING GALE FORCE ON TUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING DOWN MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES. THE OPERATION GFS IS STILL DEPICTING A VERY SMALL AREA VERY CLOSE TO 31N TUE NIGHT WHERE MINIMAL GALE IS POSSIBLE...BUT BELOW GALE FORCE ELSEWHERE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MENTION GALES EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL SCALE BACK THE AREA FROM CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY WED...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE LOW AND THE COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT LEAVING A MUCH WEAKENED FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY WED. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOWARD BERMUDA DIMINISHES AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM ALONG ROUGHLY 25N...LEAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED N OF THE BAHAMAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT N OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE FRESH TRADES PERSIST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN