000 AGXX40 KNHC 220717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM AND BROAD SE TO S FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF...WITH BOTH DATA BUOY 42002 AND 42001 REPORTING 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 0112 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS A BROAD AREA OF SERLY 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF....WHILE A 2334 UTC PASS SHOWS LIGHTER SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT E OF 85W. THIS DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS FAVORS 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE FL WEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE AND WEAK AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ERN CONUS TODAY AND DRIVE A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN GULF N OF 27N BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RATHER LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT AREA WIDE GOING INTO SUN. THE NEXT SIMILARLY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON APPEARS MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE FIRST AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE SE CONUS COAST BY LATE SUN. PER COORDINATION WITH HPC...WILL DISCOUNT THE SLOWER CMC/UKMET GUIDANCE AND ADOPT A SOLN IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MEAN SOLNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO PUSH THE STATIONARY BNDRY ACROSS THE NRN GULF SAT-SUN THROUGH FL AND AS FAR SOUTH AS 24-25N ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF MON MORNING. A LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER THE GULF THROUGH THIS TIME SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING. THEREAFTER...A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE WEST AND EMERGE ON THE PLAINS BY MON. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS AND RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SLY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY TUE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT BY MON MORNING. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS...A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF IS PREFERRED WHICH WOULD BRING THE STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE. NW TO N WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND IT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO POSSIBLY 10 FT IN A NW SWELL. SW ATLANTIC... THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SERN CONUS FRI IS REACTIVATING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FL...CAUSING IT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 27N65W 29N76W 31N81W AND SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK BUT DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS COAST IS CAUSING A SE 20 TO 25 KT WIND TO DEVELOP N OF 27N W OF 75W. A 0154 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS...AS WELL AS THE RECENT SE TO S 25 KT WINDS AT BUOY 41010. AS THE WAVE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S AND THEN SW AT 20 TO 25 KT N OF 28N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FT IN A DEVELOPING SW SWELL. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR 30-31N EARLY TODAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS SAT SHOULD SPEEDILY MOVE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY MON. THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE MIGHT TRY TO CUT OFF AND PRODUCE A DEEP SFC WAVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SE COAST MON... BUT THIS SOLN DOES NOT AGREE WELL WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE ESP IN A STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN FAVORS A STRONG SW TO W FLOW OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT N OF 28N THROUGH 62W FRI/SAT/EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE. AS THE BNDRY NORTH OF THE AREA RETURNS AS A COLD FRONT MON...A NW TO N FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6 TO 10 FT IN A NW SWELL. A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W MON SHOULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO MATURE TO 7 TO 11 FT IN A SW TO W SWELL. S OF 27N LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...AS THE FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH MON. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD FAVOR 3 TO 6 FT SEAS...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE... MODERATE TO SOMETIMES FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS HEIGHTS COLLAPSE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AND SEND THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW THOUGH...E WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 KT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN A 0336 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN THOUGH...SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...BY LATE MON/TUE...EXPECT 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS NEAR AND DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE...AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE NE SWELL RUNS OUT OF STEAM. EXPECT 3 TO 6 FT SEAS THERE BY TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN