000 AGXX40 KNHC 200714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A BRISK NE TO E WIND FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N81W 22N88W2 20N93W. A 0026 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ACROSS THE AREA REVEALS A MULTITUDE OF 20 TO SOMETIMES 25 KT COVERING THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 96W...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 6 TO POSSIBLY 10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL. HOWEVER...DATA BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS ALREADY INDICATING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING MORE ESE AT THIS HOUR AND THE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLIER RECORDED AS HIGH AS 7.5 FT ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THIS CHANGE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW CONUS BEGIN TO RE-ACTIVATE THE SOUTHERN GULF BOUNDARY AND CAUSE IT TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY. RUNS OF THE GFS SINCE 12Z HAVE DRAMATICALLY SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHT...AND A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...IS STILL SOMEWHAT FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE CONSENSUS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDING TO A 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...A MODERATELY STRONG RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT EARLY THU MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF SHOULD REBUILD SOME UNDER THE SE TO S WIND FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE GULF FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF...SINCE ANOTHER VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE SW/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A RAPID RETURN OF THE SAME BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHER GULF MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE PATTERN OVER THE GULF WILL BE FAIRLY TUMULTUOUS...EXPECT THE AREA TO GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF UNDER A SE SWELL...WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG 31N68W 24N81W SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTH OF 28N WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 6 TO 9 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FT WEST OF THE FRONT IN A NW SWELL SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN E TO SE SWELL EAST OF THE FRONT DOMINATES THE REGION UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS IN THE GULF...THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH OF ABOUT 29N...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE S TO SW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FINALLY...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD KEEP MODERATELY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN A NE TO E SWELL. WHERE RIDGING IS WEAKER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECT WEAKER TRADES AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS UNDER A SE SWELL. A GENERAL NE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD DOMINATE THE AREA AROUND PUERTO RICO...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TO 55W. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN OLD GALE CENTER NOW NEAR 26N38W CONTINUES TO ARRIVE...MAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT FAIRLY COMMON OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FORCING GONE....WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN SUBSIDING THIS WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN