000
AGXX40 KNHC 120735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...CURRENTLY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROMPTING AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTH OF 
YUCATAN. THIS WILL LIFT OUT THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A STRONGER 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO TEXAS. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL BE 
THE DRIVER FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
LATER TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WILL SHIFT MORE SLY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH WED THEN 
DIMINISH...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING 
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF BY THU...AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH TEXAS. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO GULF WATERS BY 
LATE FRI EVENING. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VIGOROUS 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 
SAT...WILL AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LOUISIANA. 
THIS MAY GENERATE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT 
INTO SAT DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE LOW IS.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FAIRLY PERSISTENT FRESH TO 
STRONG ELY TRADES WILL PERSIST FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO 
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE STANDARD LOCATION OFF THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST...WHERE UP TO 30 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO LARGE ELY 
SWELL IS LIKELY FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AS WELL...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ELY FETCH. 

SW N ATLC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW N 
ATLC NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP/BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE N. WINDS WILL VEER 
SE AND INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES BUILD E...AHEAD 
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. SLY GALES ARE 
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED IN THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS E OF 
N FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THESE WINDS DIMINISH 
BY MIDDAY THU AS MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDING OFF THE E COAST. 
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRI INTO SAT...EXCEPT FOR THE 
PERSISTENT FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
  
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080...N OF 29N E OF FRONT WED 
THROUGH EARLY THU. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080...GMZ082...AND GMZ084 BEHIND AND 
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT. 

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN