000 AGXX40 KNHC 091903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N73 27N80W 24N90W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA..AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS TIME SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR A N TO NE WIND OF 20 KT AND GUSTY FROM PARTS OF THE SW ATLANTIC INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUN. THUS...A FAIRLY PLACID GULF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT...SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT LATE SUN OVER THE SERN GULF IN A DEVELOPING NE SWELL. BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD UP TO 4 TO 6 FT IN A MIXED N AND E SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY SUN SHOULD START MIGRATING EWD TO THE NC COAST EARLY TUE...KEEPING A MODERATELY STRONG NE TO E WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND A VIGOROUS NE TO E FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD HELP SEAS BUILD UP TO 9 TO 11 FT MON AFTERNOON IN A NE SWELL. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO THE PLAINS MON AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF AND SERN STATES BY EARLY TUE. AS THIS OCCURS...AN E TO SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD VEER MORE S TO SE BY TUE...AS THE OLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SRN GULF BEGINS TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING TOO...WITH HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FT COMMON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT ON ITS NWD TREK TUE...WITH LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE WARM FRONT REACHES THE NRN GULF COAST TUE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER S TO SW...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NWRN GULF LATE TUE. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED... CROSSING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN BY WED EVENING. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...TO INCLUDE THE GFS...WERE INSISTING ON DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS. THESE RUNS... HOWEVER ...WERE MORE INSISTENT UPON DEVELOPING A CLOSED BUT PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE SERN STATES. THE 12Z GFS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL/GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS...WHICH HAS NOT BE CUTTING THIS SYSTEM OFF AND HAS A WEAKER SURFACE WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS LIKE THE CMC /CANADIAN/ MODEL CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A GUIDE...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST TO SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-LIVED BURST OF NW TO N OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. THEREAFTER...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN VEERING MORE NE TO E BY EARLY THU AND E TO SE OVER THE WRN GULF BY LATE THU. SEAS SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD UP TO 7 TO 11 WEST OF THE FRONT WED IN A DEVELOPING NW SWELL. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SERN STATES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES LATE TUE AND WED...A STRENGTHENING SE WIND OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS N FL/SW ATLANTIC N OF 27N W OF 72W. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PROGRESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS MAY FORM N OF THE WARM FRONT TUE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VEERING WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM THE S TO SW. BEYOND MID-WEEK...THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS FAVOR A DEEPER AND SLOWER-MOVING SURFACE WAVE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THU ...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM W TO E OVER THE AREA N OF 29N THU. ELSEWHERE...EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFTING EWD SUN...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE WINDS SHOULD ACCELERATE NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE...MAKING THE NE TO E FLOW 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD GENERALLY BE 8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIAN AND LESS THAN 8 FT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VENEZUELAN COAST AS WELL AS DIRECTLY OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SEAS THERE SHOULD AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FT. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE BAHAMAS AND NWRN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON SHOULD ALSO HEAD E...WHILE REINVIGORATING TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE SWRN ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN A NE TO E SWELL WITH E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...WHILE E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOP OVER THE SW ATLANTIC N OF 26N E OF 73W IN SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN A MIXED NW AND E SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN