000 AGXX40 KNHC 180618 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL PATTERN PROGRESSIVE WITH AMPLIFYING SYSTEMS TONIGHT. A LARGE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W AND A SECOND STRONG TROF OVER THE MIDWEST IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER OVER SE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BUILD NWD ALONG 70W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER ATLC WATERS 23N50W TO SE BAHAMAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF FROM W FL SW TO YUCATAN. MODERATE WINDS WRN GULF AND OVER CARIB. 20 TO 25 KT N OF 29N W OF 70W. LATER DAY 1 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH EQUALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVER GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 OLD POLAR AIRMASS 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N60W WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NE AND E WINDS E OF 80W. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NW GULF WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MO VALLEY TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CONUS AND NRN GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER SE BAHAMAS BUT BEING SQUEEZED BY MO VALLEY TROUGH AND TROUGH OVER ATLC ALONG 38W. ON THE SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER GULF AND MOVES RAPIDLY NE TO 30N80W. 1033 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES TO N TX WITH NLY FLOW OVER WRN GULF POSSIBLE GALE CONDITION OVER N AND W GULF AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW AND TX HIGH. ATLC HIGH 1025 MB NEAR 31N50W WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER ATLC AND CARIB. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGE NO LONGER ABLE TO REMAIN STATIONARY..MOVES TO NEAR 25N56W. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E TO ATLC COAST WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL W OF 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 POLAR HIGH 1034 MB MOVING E OVER SE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NE WINDS OVER GULF TO 25 KT. ATLC RIDGE CENTER MOVING E RELAXING GRADIENT OVER CARIB. COLD FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL RIDGE ACCEPTS FLAT CONFIGURATION OVER OUR REGION AS RELENTLESS STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER REGION N OF 27N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES TO ATLC COAST BUT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 90W AND OVER CARIB. ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER WRN GULF. FOR DAY 5 NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES TO MIDWEST IN NRN BRANCH TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CONUS WHICH STAYS MOSTLY ZONAL. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE S OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES E OVER WRN ATLC WITH MODERATE ELY WINDS OVER MUCH OF REGION E OF 80W. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TO SE TX BUT AIRMASS WEAK THUS GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GMZ080 AND GMZ084 LATE FRI AND SAT. ...GMZ082 SAT. FORECASTER RRG