000 AGXX40 KNHC 150700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1027 MB HIGH PRESS OVER E-CENTRAL TEXAS IS BUILDING OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDING NWD FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR VERACRUZ. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 90W WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR W GULF. MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SFC LOW NWD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW GULF SE OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT THEN MOVING THE LOW ENE TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W BY WED EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH WED MAINLY IN THE N SEMICIRCLE/COLD SECTOR WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESS TO THE N. MODELS DIFFER BEYOND WED EVENING WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS/UKMET/ECMWF NAM SWEEPING THE LOW RAPIDLY NE TO S GEORGIA EARLY THU AND OFF THE NC COAST BY THU EVENING WHILE THE POORER RESOLUTION NOGAPS KEEPS THE LOW OVER GA/AL. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND ALLOW GALES TO END AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY THU. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NE A TRAILING FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH ANOTHER LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRI BUT REMAIN IN THE SW GULF. BUILDING HIGH PRESS LATE FRI INTO SAT ALLOWS NLY WINDS TO INCREASE POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR SW GULF SAT. WILL NOT INDICATE POSSIBLE GALES AT THIS TIME AND FOCUS ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE SYSTEM AT HAND AND WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. SW ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 31N66W 22N79W CONTINUES MOVING SE WITH HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD SURGE SWEEPS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WED WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY 30 KT OVER THE FAR N AND NE SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NWW3 INDICATING SEAS TO 15-16 FT. JUST AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR NE SECTIONS LATE WED E TO SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MAINLY W OF 75W. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WED NIGHT AND THU AND SPREAD OVER MOST AREAS N OF 28N. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH WARM ADVECTION FLOW. A COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE N OF THE AREA MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY TUE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI AND EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT AS A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ALLOWS NW TO N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT MOST AREAS W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY A 2320 UTC QSCAT PASS. ANOTHER AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ARE INDICATED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEVERAL SHIPS REPORTING 25 KT WINDS. OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES 10 TO 15 KT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E AND FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED THROUGH SAT. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NE SFC WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO E WED AND TO THE SE WED AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESS CROSSES THE GULF. WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 KT OR SO AS A TRAILING FRONT STALLS NW OF THE REGION THU AND FRI. THE FRONT THEN SWEEPS SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE SAT WITH NE WINDS PICKING UP TO 25+ KT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE...GMZ080 WED...GMZO84 WED AND WED NIGHT. FORECASTER COBB