000 AGXX40 KNHC 121810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...STALLED FRONTAL TROUGH DISSECTS GULF FROM FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL EXPECT THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MEANDER UNTIL THE NEXT COLD DRY SURGE MOVES OFF TX COAST EARLY TONIGHT OVERRUNNING THE REMNANTS AROUND SUNRISE SUN WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...BUT LEAVING SOME REMNANTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BRISK NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL WATERS MON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY MON NIGHT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK N OVER THE SW GULF. VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST SURFACE LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE SW GULF TUE THEN MOVE NE WED THROUGH THU. GUIDANCE STILL DISAGREE ON POSITION OF LOW CENTER AND ITS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED NE...AND MOST IMPORTANT THE RESULTANT STRENGTH OF WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 20-25 KT MAX AND SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE...FUTURE FORECASTS MAY LEAN TOWARDS GALE CONDITIONS. SW ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 26N60W IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT N AND WEAKEN SUN AND DISSIPATE MON. ASSOCIATED WINDS IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER WATERS E OF 65W ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS THE LOW WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SHIFT E AS THE ABOVE LOW FILLS...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE MON. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL LIE E TO W ALONG 25N E OF 65W ON TUE. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER SE GA ATTM WITH THE GRADIENT E OF THE FRONT AND NW OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTING SLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD E ON SUN NIGHT AND MON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST MIDDAY SUN. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL RACE E TO POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNSET MON. THEREAFTER THE FRONT LOSES ITS PUSH AND THEN WASHES OUT ALONG 27N65W 20N70W WED. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WED ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT AND SWELLS TO 20 FT NEAR 30N67W. THE GFS NOW HINTING AT NEAR GALE NEAR ALONG 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 63W WED WITH THE ENERGY SHIFTING E OF 55W WED NIGHT. TROPICAL ATLC...A TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE WATERS N OF 18N IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W BUT DISSIPATE FASTER...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUN AFTERNOON. W OF THE TROUGH NE WINDS ARE IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND SHIFTING TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. S OF 18N...NE TO E 15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT SE PART SUN THROUGH THU. .CARIBBEAN...NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES 10 TO 15 KT THROUGHOUT. AS QUASI STATIONARY HIGH PRES N OF AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT SE ON SUN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE A TAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT BACKING THE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE NE AT 15 KT MON NIGHT...THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SE WED AND TO THE S WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT NW WATERS THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON