000 AGXX40 KNHC 111650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLING FROM FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HINT OF FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR 28N88W...BUT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IS NOW LIFTING NE. AN UPPER VORT MAX IS NOTED WELL W OF AREA NEAR 23N107W...AND THIS MAY INDUCE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ALONG REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER WESTERN GULF WATERS ON SAT. ANYWAY... EXPECTING THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT NW OVER THE W PARTS THROUGH SAT. NEXT COLD SURGE MOVES OFF TX COAST SAT NIGHT WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...BUT LEAVING SOME REMNANTS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BRISK NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL WATERS MON WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATING THAT LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. THE MODELS OF COURSE DISAGREE ON POSITION OF LOW CENTER...AND STRENGTH OF WINDS MAINLY N OF THE CENTER. WILL PROBABLY GO WITH WEAK LOW...OR TROUGH...ON DAY 5 IN THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. SW ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 26N58W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N ALONG 58W AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. ASSOCIATED WINDS IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MOSTLY E OF 65W ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE MON...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE SE ATLC WATERS TUE AND FINALLY DISSIPATING WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLING OVER SE GA WITH THE GRADIENT NW OF RIDGE SUPPORTING SLY 20 KT OVER THE NW PART...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 KT BRIEFLY SAT NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE N OF BAHAMAS EARLY SUN IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST MIDDAY SUN. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL RACE E TO POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNSET MON. THEREAFTER THE FRONT LOSES ITS PUSH AND THEN WASHES OUT ALONG 55W ON WED. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NE ATLC WATERS WED ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 15 FT NEAR 30N70W. TROPICAL ATLC...A TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE WATERS N OF 18N IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W THROUGH THE PERIOD. W OF THE TROUGH NE WINDS ARE IN 15 KT RANGE AND SHIFTING TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. S OF 18N...NE TO E 15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT SE PART SUN. .CARIBBEAN...NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...INCLUDING BOTH THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. THESE NE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE N PART EARLY TONIGHT. AS QUASI STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT S ON SUN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE A TAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT BACKING THE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE NW PORTION TO THE NE AT 15 KT MON NIGHT...THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SE BY WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON