000
AGXX40 KNHC 140702
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GALES WILL OCCUR 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT... MAINLY 
W OF 95W. GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. IN 
ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS HIGH 
AS 60%. GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE NW 
AND SW GULF ZONES. STILL TOO SOON FOR A WARNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FRESH ELY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND E 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS ALONG 
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WIND FIELD OF THE REMNANT OLGA LOW PRES IN 
NW CARIBBEAN. SLY FLOW WITH THE REMNANT LOW IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 
180 NM OVER THE SE QUAD. THE LOW IS TRACKING W AND SHOULD MOVE OVER  
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT 
SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE REMNANT 
LOW ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL 
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED IN NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT N TODAY AS 
A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX 
COAST SAT MORNING. WAVEWATCH INDICATES SEAS UP TO 14 FT IN CENTRAL 
AND SW GULF LATE SUN. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE GA COAST SUN MORNING 
AND REACHES A PSN FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA SUN EVENING. FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SE PUSH AFTER MOVING 
THROUGH BERMUDA MON AFTERNOON. 

ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 27N LATE SAT AS THE OLGA 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL LIE ALONG 25N 
LATE SUN THEN SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SW ATLC. ELY 
TRADES ARE QUITE BRISK S OF THIS RIDGE...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH 
SEAS TO 12 FT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS WIND FIELD IS ALONG 75W IN 
THE CARIBBEAN AND MERGES WITH THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED THE REMNANTS 
OF OLGA IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS INCREASE IN THE TRADES SHOULD SPREAD W 
IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ALONG 80W SAT...WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN WITH N SWELLS REACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
LATE MON. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL