000 AGXX40 KNHC 210702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED NOV 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS PARKED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS GULF WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW IS SHOWING UP ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CMANS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS IS LIKELY RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE STRAITS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NWLY FLOW. THE FRONT WILL SAG FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE THU. UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE FRONT STALLS GENERALLY ALONG 25N ON FRI. THE FIRST MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICAN COAST WHERE FUNNELING TYPICALLY ALLOWS EXTRA STRONG WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 30 KT BUT BELOW GALE STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STALLED FRONT ON SAT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE LOW LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN...INDUCING NEAR GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF ON SUNDAY. WILL MONITOR UPCOMING RUNS TO WEIGH POTENTIAL MENTION OF GALE CONDITIONS. ATLC WATERS... NEAR GALE FORCE NWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO THE SE OF BERMUDA...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTER WELL TO THE NORTH...AND HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE SWELL ACCOMPANIES THE NLY FLOW. THE HIGH SHIFTS E...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT LATE THU N OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED E-W AND STALL N OF THE BAHAMAS BY SAT. THIS PUSHES THE HIGH PRES FURTHER SE...ENHANCING TRADES THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE N. THE PERSISTENT ELY FLOW IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN