000
AGXX40 KNHC 160655
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LOW PRES OF 1006 MB MOVING NW ABOUT 13 KT CONTINUES OVER THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.5N93.9W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 29N87.5W. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE LOW TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN 
TEXAS COAST BY WED MORNING WHERE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS IS 
EXPECTED IN RELATION TO THE LOW THROUGH WED MORNING. QUIKSCAT 
DATA FROM JUST AFTER 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED E-SE WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT E OF THE LOW S OF 25N AND E-SE 10 KT W OF 
THE LOW. E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT WHERE INDICATED NE 
OF THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE TROUGH DUE TO TIGHTER 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE NE GULF.

THE RIDGE THEN RETREATS E OF THE GULF THU AND FRI AS WHAT 
PRESENTLY APPEARS TO BE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF 
THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING AND REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA 
BIG BEND TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI. MODELS THEN EXTEND THE 
FRONT FROM S FLORIDA TO NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT 
WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM THE 
N. MOST GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS INDICATE THAT NE 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NE 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT ON SAT. 
GFS BOUNDARY WINDS FOR SAT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY 15 KT. 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15 
KT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF SW 15-20 KT 
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF FRI DUE TO PRES GRADIENT FIELD BETWEEN 
FRONT AND THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH.
 
OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM OVER THE
FAR NW CORNER TO SE FLORIDA BY SAT. MODELS AGREE THAT SW WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT...BUT THERE IS 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S INTO THE FORECAST WATERS THESE WINDS 
WILL OCCUR. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN N OF 31N ON 
SAT PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT 
PENDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT THEN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BECOME DIFFUSE TO THE 
NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER ON SAT AND BEYOND AS IT BECOMES 
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES WITH THE STRONGER ONE TO ITS W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 85W WITH A 
WEAK 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N85W IS MOVING W 10 KT. BOTH THE LOW
AND WAVE ARE HAVING LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.
TO THE E OF THE WAVE...TRADES ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 66W AND N OF 12N. WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SAT...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN OF HAITI...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE TRADE WINDS THERE MAY CONTINUE
AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE