000
AGXX40 KNHC 091725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND ALSO A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
OTHERWISE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  THE TEXAS RIDGE WILL MOVE 
SOUTH TO OVER MEXICO WED NIGHT AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL 
EXPAND NORTHWARD AND WILL ALSO COVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE 
ATLANTIC AREA. A MIDDLE LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXPAND 
SOUTHWARD ALONG ABOUT 80W BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS TO 27N WED NIGHT.  
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN ON FRIDAY THE 
MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH WILL RETRACT NORTHWARD LIFTING THE WESTERLIES 
TO NORTH OF 29N LATE FRIDAY AND NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.  AS 
THE TROUGH RETRACTS NORTHWARD WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CONNECTING THE 
TEXAS RIDGE WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.

SURFACE...
BROAD LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL 20 KNOT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CAUSED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW AND A FLUCTUATING RIDGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE UNITED 
STATES. TRADES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE FAR EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE 20 KT.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE 
EASTERN BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THE LOW NORTHEAST TO PASS 
NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY. GFS PUTS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS IN THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND FORECASTS GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF 25N THURSDAY 
NIGHT.  WILL TEMPER THAT SOMEWHAT AND LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN FOR 
FURTHER GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL