000 AGXX40 KNHC 231640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DISSECTS GULF FROM MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WITH ORIENTATE ITSELF N-S MEANDERING E-W BETWEEN 91-95W THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS W OF TROUGH AXIS AND TIGHTER GRADIENT E OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TUE...THEN GRADIENT WEAKENS. NHC NOW MENTIONING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALONG THE TROUGH. SW ATLC...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 31N70W 27N79W WITH A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N69W...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING ITS SE MOVEMENT. EXPECT RIDGING OFF SE CONUS TO BRIDGE FRONTAL REMNANTS FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS MON. HIGH PRES RACES E OFF CONUS ALONG 37N TO THE ATLC E OF BERMUDA WED AND WILL PUSH WHATEVER REMAINS OF TROUGH W TOWARDS E FLORIDA COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE NE THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK. A SECOND LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WILL ALSO MOVE W-NW WITH A SLIGHT NE-E WIND SHIFT OVER EXTREME SE WATERS E OF BAHAMAS MON INTO TUE. TROPICAL ATLC...A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 22N60W 16N62W WITH CONVECTION FLARING OCCASIONALLY E OF TROUGH. QSCAT INDICATES ONLY 10-15 KT EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. EXPECT REMNANTS TO DRIFT NW OF AREA MON NIGHT...SEE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W. SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WAVE AXIS POSITION PAST FEW DAYS...A VERY BROAD PERTURBATION...SO I AM ESTIMATING MOTION TO BE W AT 15 KT. CONVECTIVE ATTM NEAR 12N56W. NHC SUGGESTING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT IF A CYCLONE DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL MOVE ON A NW TRACK WHILE THE PARENT WAVE CONTINUES W INTO CARIBBEAN. IN ANY EVENT...FORECASTING NE-SE 15-20 KT WINDS SHIFT WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF AREA MON MORNING. ASSOCIATED SE WINDS 15-20 KT JUST S OF YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX TO 10-15 KT MON AND 10 KT THEREAFTER. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER E CARIBBEAN AROUND SUNRISE MON AND MOVE W AT ABOUT 15 KT REACHING WEST CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI. NHC SUGGESTING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS THE CYCLONE... IF IT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE NW THREATENING NE ISLANDS WHILE THE PARENT WAVE WOULD CONTINUE W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON