000 AGXX40 KNHC 120609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...THE FRONTAL TROUGH ALMOST STATIONARY OVER W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AS EXPECTED WHILE SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED NW TO ALONG ROUGHLY 95W WITH A WEAK LOW PRES ALONG TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N95W PER LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR...NOTE GOES W STILL IN ECLIPSE. ASSOCIATED WINDS IN 15 KT RANGE PER BUOY AND RIG NETWORK. STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS...AND THE COMBINED BOUNDARY TO SHIFT W AND INLAND TEXAS EARLY THU AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WEAKENS FRI A NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TO N LOUISIANA AMD MISSISSIPPI REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SUNRISE SUN. NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU...THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI...AND TROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ATLC...A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA WILL MEANDER OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT E AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE GEORGIA LATE SAT REACHING POSITION 31N75W 28N80W SUN NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AHEAD OF NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION FLARING AS FAR N AST 25N71W PER PRE ECLIPSE IMAGERY. GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ASSOCIATED ELY WINDS ALONG WAVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL TONE DOWN A TAD WITH WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W A LITTLE FASTER...AROUND 17 KT... REACHING THE CAY SAL BANK THU NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRI. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WAS REPOSITIONED TODAY WITH W MOTION ESTIMATED AT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE W TO ALONG 80W THU AND MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS FRI. ELY WINDS IN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT THEN GRADIENT RELAXES SUN. A TROPICAL LOW PRES NEAR 12N43W HAS SEPARATED FROM ITS PARENT WAVE AND IS MOVING ON A NLY TRACK. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED AND NOW SUGGESTS AS NW MOTION ABOUT 8 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PRE ECLIPSE IMAGERY SHOWED DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON