000
AGXX40 KNHC 300506
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK 
EMBEDDED TROUGHS ALONG 100W AND 60W AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 
35W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 33W AND 
65W. A WEAK LOW WAS OVER S FL. A 1027 MB HIGH ANCHORED THE ATLC 
RIDGE NEAR 31N43W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO 27N75W. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY EXTENDING 
WSW TO 20N88W. WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS MIGRATE NE ON THE NRN SIDE 
OF THE RIDGE NEAR 42W AND 57W. ANOTHER ALONG 75W. THE INVERTED 
TROUGH DRIFTS W TO 50W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE ATLC RIDGE EXCEPT THE AXIS EXTENDS W ALONG 30N. WEAK LOW 
OVER S FL DRIFTING NNE. WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CENTRAL PORTION. 

FOR DAY 2 NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DRIVES A LARGE UPPER 
TROUGH SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER 
THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER TX DRIFTS NWD. ATLC MID 
LEVEL RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 ANCHOR OF ATLC 
RIDGE STATIONARY BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. LITTLE CHANGE TO AXIS. 
WEAK LOW OVER FL DRIFTS NNE. CARIB WINDS REMAIN STRONG E OF 80W 
WHERE ATLC RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA PRODUCE GRADIENT 
OVER CENTRAL PORTION.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 SOME LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 70W AS LARGE 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SWD. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE STATIONARY NEAR 
28N38W WITH AXIS WSW TO SE GULF. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER TX JUST 
WON'T MOVE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SE 
COAST TO 29N78W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME 
WITH AXIS FURTHER S ACROSS BAHAMAS. WEAK HIGH OVER GULF WITH 
LIGHT WINDS. NO CHANGE TO ATLC TRADES OR CARIB WINDS.

FOR DAY 4 UPPER TROUGH HEADS RAPIDLY EWD TO ALONG 57W. MID LEVEL 
ATLC RIDGE REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO WRN 
CUBA. MODEL SHOWING VORTICITY WITH TRPL WAVES INDICATING THEY 
ARE GETTING STRONGER. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GFS MODEL SHOWS 
CIRCULATION WITH WAVE NEAR 34W. ATLC FRONT MOVES TO 29N64W WITH 
20 KT ON E SIDE OF FRONT. ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
W ALONG 26N. SOME INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW W OF 95W BUT ONLY TO 
15 KT. CARIB WINDS UNCHANGED. ATLC TRADES ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.

FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING W SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 28N40W 
WITH AXIS TO SE GULF. INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGHING S OF RIDGE 
ALONG 43W AND 72W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH TRPL WAVES. WEAK 
TROUGH OVER FL. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5..THE FOURTH OF JULY..ATLC 
RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO NRN BAHAMAS. WEAK 
HIGH OVER GULF WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.  CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT 
WITH POSSIBLE 25 KT NEAR S CENTRAL PORTION. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY 
15 KT. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG