000 AGXX40 KNHC 191833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 29N WITH S-SE FLOW OVER THE GULF. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SW GULF WITH BUOYS 42002 AND 42055 REPORTING SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER NRN ALABAMA IS A KEY PLAYER IN THE FCST. NWP MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM MOVING A DVLPG SFC LOW...ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX...FROM SE GA INTO THE NE GULF AND ARE FOCUSING ON MOVING THE LOW INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC...SEE SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW. IN ANY EVENT SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DRAG A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE E GULF WATERS THU AND FRI WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. LIGHT WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED AT MOST. ON SAT AND SUN WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN MID GULF WHERE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE INCREASES ELY FLOW. SW N ATLC... A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO THE BAHAMAS IGNITING SOME TSTM ACTIVITY. AT THE SFC A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESS NEAR 29N71W CONTROLS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RESPECTED UKMET/ECMWF/GFS/GEFS TAKING A SFC LOW FROM SE GA AND MOVING IT SEWD ALONG THE NE COAST OF FL/FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC THU AND FRI. MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH THE CMC/NOGAPS/ECMWF KEEPING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION INTACT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS/UKMET APPEAR TO SHEAR THE LOW OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATTER SOLUTION SEEMS CORRECT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW REGIME. THUS WILL FCST SLY WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20-25 KT THU AND FRI OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE ZONE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE E...THEN DECREASE WINDS TO 15 KT OR SO SAT AND SUN AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT. SUB-NORMAL TRADES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE FACE OF THE LOW TRACK AND WEAKENED RIDGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1115 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 20-25 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND WED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W HAS ONLY A SLIGHT NE-E 15 KT WIND SHIFT...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 15 KT THROUGH CARIBBEAN THROUGH PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF 15N. WAVE HERALDS AN ELY SURGE WHICH ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS TRADES TO INCREASE THU THROUGH SAT WITH 30 KT WINDS AND 14 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SURGE. SURGE SPREADS WWD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER COBB/JC