000
AGXX40 KNHC 070456
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WAS OVER 
THE ERN GULF TONIGHT MOVING E. A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 50W AND 
24N WAS STATIONARY CAUGHT S OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. A FLAT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF E TO 60W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ALONG 27N INTO THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADES S OF 24N. GULF WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 
KT NEAR CONVECTION.

LATER DAY 1 A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH BRUSHES BY THE 
REGION ALONG 60W MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE 
ALONG 50W. THE GULF RIDGE BEGINS BULGING NWD ALONG 80W IN 
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
STRONG SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA IS NEAR 60W WITH A 1021 MB 
HIGH FOLLOWING IT. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W INCREASES TO 20 KT AS 
PRES FALLS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE 
PLAINS. MODERATE ELY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIB WHILE ATLC 
TRADES REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE 
GREATLAKES..THE OTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG 60W CLOSES OFF NEAR 
37N59W. IT WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NWLY FLOW E OF 70W INTO OUR AREA. 
OTHERWISE A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND NW CARIB. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLC REMAINS 
ALONG 60W WITH THE SAME 1021 MB HIGH FOLLOWING BACK NEAR 31N72W. 
ATLC WINDS N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT. SELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE W 
OF 90W BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN DAY 1. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE 
WHILE ATLC TRADES ALSO REMAIN LIGHT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SIMPLIFIES WITH A RIDGE CENTER 
0VER THE NW GULF AND A CLOSED LOW STATIONARY NEAR 38N58W. NRN 
BRANCH WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY SE AROUND THE 
CUTOFF LOW INTO OUR REGION E OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 
PRESSURES BEGIN TO LOWER N OF 30N E OF 70W WITH AN INCREASE IN 
SWLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT. GULF WINDS DECREASE TO MOSTLY 10 KT 
OR LESS UNDER A WEAK HIGH. CARIB WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 
KT. ATLC TRADES NO CHANGE.

FOR DAY 4 WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE 
NW GULF..THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE W ATLC BEGINS TO LIFT NWD ALONG 
60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF 
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 27N TO 
77W. CONSEQUENTLY ATLC TRADES PICK UP SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT. CARIB 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. WHILE GULF WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR 
LESS. 

FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE 
CUTOFF LOW CONITNUING TO MOVE NWD ALONG 60W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE E 
OF 70W SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE 
ATLC RIDGE ALSO STRENGTHENS TO 1026 MB NEAR 31N41W WITH IT'S 
AXIS WWD ALONG 27N WWD TO 80W. ATLC TRADES INCREASE TO 20 KT S 
OF 18N AND WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE ERN CARIB. WRN CARIB WINDS W 
OF 80W REMAIN LIGHT AS DO GULF WINDS.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG