000
AGXX40 KNHC 100602
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF SUBTRPCL STORM ANDREA 
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS ACCORDING 
TO WATER VAPOR/SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY...AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR 
AND INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL BY LIMITING ALL 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA FELL ON THE EDGE 
OF A 2302 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 
KT...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE LATEST ADVISORY. HIGHEST BUOY 
OBS OVER THE WATERS S OF 31N ARE RUNNING ABOUT 20 KT AT 41012 
AND 41010 WITH SEAS DOWN TO ABOUT 7-8 FT...BUT LIKELY HIGHER IN 
THE STRONGER WINDS E OF THE CENTER. WILL BRING HIGHEST SEAS DOWN 
SLIGHTLY BASED ON PARAMETRIC WAVE MODEL AND LATEST TRENDS. 
LATEST NHC ADVISORY KEEPS ANDREA AS A MINIMAL SUB T.S. UNTIL FRI 
MORNING AS IT DRIFTS SW TOWARDS THE NE FLORIDA COAST...WITH 
CONTINUED WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY SUN EVENING. E 
OF ANDREA...WEAK SLY FLOW IS FEEDING N WITH A VERY WEAK SFC 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 31N67W. MODEL 
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW FROM THIS TROUGH...WHICH SCOOTS NE 
OF THE AREA LATE FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS 
CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER WIND 
FIELD AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOWER SIDE. STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS IN 
OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA FRI AS THE LOW LIFTS N. A COLD 
FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SUN WITH WINDS 
INCREASING OVER THE NW PART OUT OF THE N/NE INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.

NESDIS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SMOKE FROM THE VARIOUS FIRES OVER 
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA HAS DRIFTED EWD OVER THE ATLC WATERS IN PART 
DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE AREA 
COVERED BY SMOKE IS N OF 23N W OF 74W. VISIBILITIES AT SOME OF 
THE FLORIDA E COAST SITES HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5 STATUE MILES 
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST VISIBILITY IS POOR IN SPOTS OVER OPEN WATER. 
WILL ADD A STATEMENT IN THE NEXT PACKAGE FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND 
HAZE DURING FIRST FEW PERIODS.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES IS IN CONTROL JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH WINDS 
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW BUOYS 
OVER THE FAR NE GULF HAVE BEEN UP TO 15 KT DUE TO THE 
CIRCULATION OF ANDREA...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD CONTINUE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF THE E FLORIDA 
COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES LITTLE THROUGH MON WITH THE 
AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT WINDS. WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF SMOKE 
AND HAZE OVER THE S PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF ZONES AND THE 
W PART OF THE SW GULF ZONE BASED ON LAST FEW VIS IMAGES AND 
NESDIS GUIDANCE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
WINDS REMAIN TO 20 KT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AS THE STRONGEST 
GRADIENT LIES E OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO 
CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS W OF THE TROUGH ARE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF 
THE NE. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN 
THROUGH MON.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...N OF 29N W OF 78W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BERG