000 AGXX40 KNHC 121810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW PRES OVER TEXAS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE MAINLY E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ELY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SE AND S/CNTRL GULF WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT AS TIME GOES ON. ALSO...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SPAWNED A SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA S AND W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...STILL PRODUCING MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY CONFINED NEAREST THE COAST. RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU...THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A FRONT FROM THE N TO THE GULF COAST FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT SPREADING S THE REST OF THE DAY WITH N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE SEEMS TO STILL BE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING A FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS TO GO WITH THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS WHICH STILL CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO NOT COME TO AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS REALLY BACKING OFF BUT THE UKMET STILL SHOWING 25 KT. WILL STILL GO IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR NOW UNTIL I SEE MORE CONSENSUS. SW N ATLC... A SFC TROUGH HAS NEARLY STALLED OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE REGION...NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ALSO...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG 30N PUSHING S. THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES IS CAUSING NE/E WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS SWWD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL THU. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 9 FT...FETCH- LIMITED A BIT BY THE BAHAMAS THEMSELVES. S/SW WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PART ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI PER THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER HERE BY SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TO 30 KT...BUT EVEN THIS HAS COME DOWN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. WILL TAILOR THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS DOWN A BIT TO 15-20 KT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS LONG-TERM FCST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 25 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A 1040Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STRONGER TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN DIE DOWN THU THROUGH SAT. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRUSH THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MORE OR LESS JUST TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. ALL WAVE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND THE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS TO 12 FT WITH THE 30 KT WINDS. FARTHER E...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N63W TO PUERTO RICO AND WILL DRIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOVING E OF 55W BY THU. SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS ARE RUNNING PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH FNMOC GUIDANCE...WITH 5-7 FT ELY SWELLS THE NORM. THE TRADES ARE DYING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH THE OF SFC TROUGH...AND WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE A BIT TO 4-6 FT BY FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG