000
AGXX40 KNHC 080625
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES 
MERGES WITH THE NRN BRANCH JUST OFF THE E COAST WITH A STRONG W 
AND SW FLOW EXITING THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N47W SW TO NE CUBA. AN 
OLD POLAR HIGH LIES NW OF THE FRONT AND THE ATLC RIDGE E OF THE 
FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB AT 20 TO 30 
KT AND THE ATLC TRADES S OF 20N E OF 60W AT 20 TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 IN THE MID LEVELS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXCEPT FOR A 
NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLNG S OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN BRANCH MOVES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST N 
OF 20N WITH MOSTLY HIGH PRESSURE. S OF 20N THE GRADIENT WEAKENS 
AND ELY WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY. 

FOR DAY 2 THE COLD SURGE TO THE N REMAINS N OF THE AREA AND 
MOVES EWD. SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES REMAINS STRONG WITH ONE 
SHORTWAVE ALONG 65W ANOTHER ALONG 80W AND A THIRD ONE BACK ALONG 
100W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVES GENERATE WEAK FRONTAL 
WAVES ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ONE NEAR 30N57W AND 
ANOTHER NEAR 25N69W. WINDS TO 25 KT COULD DEVELOP ON THE N SIDE 
OF THESE TWO LOWS AS THEY PRESS AGAINST AN OLD POLAR RIDGE N OF 
30N. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC WINDS 
MOSTLY MODERATE.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE WITH 
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO CARVE 0UT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH BETWEEN 60W 
AND 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE ON 
THE N SIDE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN AN AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W 
AND 75W. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC 
WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE.

FOR DAY 4 BETTER DEVELOPED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E ALONG 65W 
WHILE A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 4 A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG A LINE FROM 
31N60W TO 20N70W. SOME WINDS OF 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH N OF 27N WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER DUE TO 
HIGH PRESSURE. OTHER AREAS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 5 ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ALONG 55W N OF 25N 
WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH MOVES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 5 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG 88W IN CONJUNCTION 
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MODEL ONLY DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW WHICH 
COULD BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT THE 
MODEL SHOWS. IF IT REMAINS WEAK THEN GULF WINDS WILL BE LIGHT 
BUT A STRONGER LOW WOULD STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. TRADES S OF 20N 
REMAIN MODERATE. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG