000 AGXX40 KNHC 020614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SUBTROPIC JET IS EVIDENT ALONG THE N GULF COAST ON THE UNDER SIDE OF A STRONG CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER GREATLAKES. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N FROM CENTRAL AMERICA EWD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT AN OLD FRONT WAS OVER THE ATLC WITH LITTLE WINDS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH SLY WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE IN THE NE GULF. CARIB WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW DUE TO PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVER THE NRN GULF WHILE THE STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREATLAKES. A SHORTWAVE MOVING E OF 60W WILL CONTINUE TO 54W LATER DAY 1. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 ATLC HIGH 1023 MB NEAR 31N52W WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES S OF 22N. CARIB WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW WITH THE 1003 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO 29N83W SW TO CAMPECHE BAY. FOR DAY 2 A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT HEADS SE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND THE CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES ENE. STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH A FLAT RIDGE HOLDING S OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO ATLC AND CARIB WINDS. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES E TO 31N75W 27N82W TO CAMPECHE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS W OF FRONT WITH INCREASING N AND NE WINDS BHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP DAY 3 OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK TO SE TX. THIS ALLOWS COLD AIR TO SPILL SWD INTO THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A 1035 MB POLAR HIGH DROPS SE TO SE TX PUSHING A STRONG SURGE OVER THE GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PROBABLY WILL GET GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE W OF 90W WITH 20 TO 25 KT E OF 90W BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIB WINDS RELAX SOME AS THE ATLC RIDGE SLIDES EWD. LITTLE CHANGE TO ATLC TRADES. FOR DAY 4 A STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH THE TROUGH SE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS OVER THE WRN GULF AND SRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1031 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES OVER THE NW GULF WITH N AND NE WINDS DIMINISHING. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N62W WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUING W OF FRONT TO 80W AND NW CARIB. S CENTRAL CARIB WEAKEN FURTHER TO 15 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. ATLC TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME E OF 60W. FOR DAY 5 MODIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 65-70W WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ALONG 95W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A 1028 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES ENE TO 31N88W WITH GULF WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT ELY TO 20 KT E OF FRONT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO 31N56W 21N70W WITH DECREASING WINDS. ATLC TRADES S OF 20N WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG