000 AGXX40 KNHC 130640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SE/S FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRES SKIRTS EWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO ITS W ACROSS W TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE LIES AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH SEVERE WEATHER TRAVERSING ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS ARE UP TO 20 KT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW FEEDS INTO THIS LINE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER QUICKLY TO SW/W THIS MORNING...AND THEN NW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY WED. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS INCREASES WINDS AGAIN OVER THE NW PART ON THU...FIRST TO 20-25 KT IN THE MORNING THEN LIKELY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST (SW GULF) BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS PROBABILITY OF GALES AT LEAST 60% BY THU EVENING...AND ACTUAL WINDS USUALLY DON'T HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING GALE FORCE DUE TO BARRIER FLOW. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI THEN BECOME GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS BY SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ALONG 25N. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N GULF COAST LATE SAT WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST W OF BERMUDA WITH BROAD E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS WITH A GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA EWD INTO THE ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE DAY AS SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER SW/W BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING N OF 25N AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT OVER THE FAR N PORTION TONIGHT AND WED...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PROBABILITY FOR GALES N OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED AFTERNOON THEN WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT/THU. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KT MAINLY N OF 25N LATE THU/FRI WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SAT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A THIRD TIME OVER THE NW PART SAT NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 2336 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED TRADE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...DECREASING TO ABOUT 25 KT AT BUOY 42058 FARTHER N. 20-25 KT ELY TRADES ALSO EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 78W DUE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE HIGH IS PUSHED E BY LOW PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KT) WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY FRI AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER. AS FAR AS FRONTS GO...ONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WED AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN BE PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI WITH NLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFS WINDS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG