000 AGXX40 KNHC 110801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA W TO 26N90W TO 26N95W THE BECOMES STATIONARY TO SW TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME BEHIND THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF. WINDS THERE ARE PRESENTLY NE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0026 UTC LAST NIGHT ALSO SHOWED NE-E WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE S THROUGH BECOMING DIFFUSED OVER THE SRN PORTION TONIGHT. S OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE ALSO NE MOSTLY 10 KT AS SEEN ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS. HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA MON MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY THE NWP MODELS. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A PSN FROM N FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED...AND EXIT THE GULF LATE WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TUE WITH N WINDS OF 20-25 KT...SPREADING TO THE E GULF N OF 27N AS NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS WED. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 20-30 KT OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 90W BY THU WITH MORE PRONOUNCED NW-NW 25-30 KT OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS HERE MAY HAVE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THU...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF WINDS HERE NEED TO BE INCREASED TO GALE CRITERIA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WED WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NE 10-15 KT EXCEPT SW 10-15 KT E OF THE FRONT. 00 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT SEA STATE OBSERVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W SW TO 29N74W TO 27N80W EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW 15 TO 20 KT AS SEEN ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2244 UTC LAST NIGHT AND AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41010...41009 AND BUOY 41002 N OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE E OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THE 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN MON INTO TUE MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. THE HIGH THEN RETREATS E OF THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG A PSN FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUE...AND FROM 31N68W TO S FLORIDA LATE WED...AND FROM 28N65W TO THE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS LATE THU. STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 27N TUE AND WED. GFS 30M WINDS INDICATE 20-30 KT E AND W OF THE FRONT WED...WITH WINDS E OF THE FRONT DECREASING TO 20-25 KT THU. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS 10M WIND FORECAST FOR THE SAME TIME PERIODS. NWW3 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE THE AREA MAINLY N OF 26N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 15 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THE WINDS HERE THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS E-W ACROSS THE ATLC...THEN DECREASE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT WED AND THU. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND UP TO 9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT NE-E IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT NE TRADES S OF 15N E OF 75W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 18N TONIGHT AND THROUGH WED MORNING THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KT INTO THU. EXPECT AND E SWELL UP TO 8 FT HERE LATE MON THROUGH WED AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE