000 AGXX40 KNHC 060616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A ONCE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS RIDING OVER RIDGE TONIGHT ALONG 80W. THE RIDGE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22N80W. LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE ERN ATLC BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUES W OF 80W TONIGHT BUT A NEW SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ONLY A VERY WEAK AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT..MORE A PRODUCT OF A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NW GULF..ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH ALONG 55W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SW ATLC AND CARIB E OF 80W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES. LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PLOWS THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 73W. THE RIDGE CENTER DRIFTS W TO 23N83W. MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 80W CONTINUES SWLY WITH THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WEAKENING OVER THE MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW ALOFT SETS UP NEAR 22N55W..PART OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD BUT TRADES CHANGE LITTLE E OF 80W OVER THE CARIB. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TX GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WWD TO NEAR 20N90W WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 35N50W. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 20N55W. A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER FLOW W OF 90W TO MORE OF A WLY DIRECTION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE UNDER THE STATIONARY CUTOFF OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EWD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES CARVING OUT WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE TROUGH WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING NWLY W OF 90W. THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 18N92W WITH A WEAKENING AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 33N55W. THE CUTOFF ALOFT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 20N55W WITH NEW TROUGHING SETTING UP ALONG 30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUE SLIDING EWD AND ELY TRADES WEAKEN W OF 60W. CARIB WINDS ALSO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SE GULF. A 1030 MB HIGH DROPS SE TO SE TX AND WILL MAINTAIN NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR DAY 4 ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A LARGE TROUGH ALONG 80W IN THE NRN BRANCH. THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF TURNS NWLY WHICH AIDS THE POLAR AIRMASS MOVING E BEHIND THE GULF FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES WWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ONLY A WEAK AXIS EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A NEW MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 30N45W WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IN THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1034 MB HIGH MOVES TO ERN TX MAINTAINING NLY WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE NW BAHAMAS. CARIB WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH WEAKEN PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN NEAR 31N42W WITH BRISK NE AND E TRADES E OF 55W. FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL FLOW RAPIDLY BECOMES WLY ONCE AGAIN AS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREATLAKES MOVES E OFF THE NE COAST. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE E ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE ALONG 90W AND ANOTHER ALONG 65W. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEAR 33N40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD COLD FRONT CONTINUES E TO NEAR 31N62W TO SE BAHAMAS WITH A 1028 MB HIGH FOLLOWING OVER THE SE US. GULF WINDS DIMINISH BUT ATLC AND NW CARIB WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT. ELY TRADES REMAIN BRISK E OF 55W WITH THE ATLC RIDGE NOW OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG