000 AGXX40 KNHC 160558 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WAS TRYING TO MAKE IT'S WAY OVER A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIB. THE SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 33N30W AND STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS MOVING SLOWLY E. AN EQUALLY WEAK HIGH WAS OVER THE N GULF COAST. THE OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MUCH MODIFIED HAS MOVED TO THE MID ATLC ALONG 45W AND STILL IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NE AND E WINDS E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE ERN GULF SQUEEZING BY THE FLATTERNING RIDGE OVER THE CARIB. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND APPEARS TO BE EYEING THE CUTOFF LOW. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD TO NEAR 31N62W 25N72W. SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF BUT FAIRLY WEAK. ATLC TRADES DECREASE AS THE OLD AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES. FOR DAY 2 AFTER LETTING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE CARIB RIDGE SHIFTS WWD TO THE SRN GULF AND EXPANDS NWD. THE SH0RTWAVE MOVES TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND HEADS ESE. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SE AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAR COAST AND GAINS STRENGTH FROM THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT..THUS WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 60W AND 90W TO 20 KT. THE OLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N52W 23N63W. WINDS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE MARINE AREA INCREASE TO 25 KT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER THE CUTOFF. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SIMPLIFIES SOME WITH A STRONG RIDGE DOMINATING W OF 60W AND A EQUALLY STRONG TROUGH SETTING UP E OF 60W. THE OLD SHORTWAVE WAVE REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS..PASSED BY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A 1025 MB HIGH REMAINS OFF THE CAR COAST DAY 3 WITH MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. CARIB WINDS STRONGEST OVER THE NW CORNER AT 20 KT. THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N40W 22N55W WITH WINDS OF 20 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDS NW OVER THE PLAINS BLOCKING THE SRN BRANCH..BUT THE NRN BRANCH SENDS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NE WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES ITSELF ALONG 28N. A NEW RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN CONUS INCREASING NE AND E WINDS OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIB DAY 4 TO 20 KT. TRADES S OF 20N MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 5 THE NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND DIVES SE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST RAPIDLY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 70W. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN ATLC IN RESPONSE TO THIS ACTIVITY. A NEW CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS BLOCKED BY THE GULF RIDGE THAT MAINTAINS AN AXIS N ALONG 85W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE SRN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS EWD TO 85W..THUS NE WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT W OF OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO 31N63W 20N73W. GULF WINDS ALSO INCREASE E OF 92W TO 20 KT AS DO NW CARIB WINDS. E OF 60W A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS NEW LIFE UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND TRADES INCREASE S OF 18N TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG