000 AGXX40 KNHC 140605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS DOMINATE THE PATTERN TONIGHT W OF 50W. A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 40W TONIGHT HAS STRONG SINKING AIR BETWEEN 40W AND 50W FROM 20N TO 30N AND WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLC. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE WRN CARIB AND BAHAMAS E TO 65W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC EXTENDS SW TO NE FL AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NE AND E WINDS N OF 18N W TO THE ERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROF WAS OVER THE SE GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS ELY 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 40W BUT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE CUTOFF FROM IT'S SOURCE OF COLD AIR WELL TO THE N. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRULATION NEAR 25N56W IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIB AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SE. STRONG SW AND W MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES W OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN ATLC WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG 40W IS FAIRLY TIGHT AND NLY WINDS TO 30 KT IS FORECAST. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF 65W. CARIB WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME TO 20 KT OVER THE ERN PORTION. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. FOR DAY 2 AS EXPECTED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 40W BEGINS TO CUTOFF NEAR 33N32W. THE RIDGE OVER THE CARIB AND BAHAMAS REMAINS STATIONARY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF WHILE A LARGE TROUGH MOVES E OVER THE NE US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W EVEN THOUGH THE MID ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A TROUGH NE/SW OVER CENTRAL FL IS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS RUN OUT OF STEAM. A WEAK HIGH LIES OVER THE NW GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS STRONGEST OVER THE NE CORNER AT 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 A LARGE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC WITH A CENTER NEAR 34N32W. THE MID LEVEL CARIB RIDGE SINKS SWD TO ALONG 20N WHILE THE WRN GULF SHORTWAVE MOVES E TO 85W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD OVER THE ATLC BETWEEN 60W AND 70W N OF 25N WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS FRONT IS THE OLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER FL DAY 2 AND MAY GET A SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND SO DO WINDS OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W. RETURN FLOW STARTS OVER THE WRN GULF TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 WITH SHORTWAVES EXITING THE N AMERICAN CONTINENT..THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIB BULGES NWD ALONG 80W. THIS ALLOWS SHORTWAVES TO DROP INTO THE ERN ATLC KICKING OUT THE CLOSED LOW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NRN GULF DAY 3 STRENGTHENS UNDER THE BULGING RIDGE ALOFT AND MOVES OFF THE CAR COAST. NE TO E WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT NOW E OF 60W. RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT AS DOES ELY TRADES OVER THE CARIB. FOR DAY 5 A LARGE MOUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS W OF 50W. THIS WILL KEEP SHORTWAVES WELL N OF THE AREA UNTIL THEY CROSS OVER THE RIDGE THEN ALLOW THEM TO DIG SE OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE RIDGE OFF THE CAR COAST STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT DRIFTS EWD AND WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVER MOST AREAS. THE OLD FRONT MOVES EWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF 50W WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG