000
AGXX40 KNHC 130606
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
110 AM EST WED DEC 13 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF 
TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY THEN 
CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA SUNDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE 
RATHER WEAK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER 
FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC AREA.

SURFACE...
THE ONLY FEATURE OF MUCH INTEREST IS THE SURFACE TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE.  A TROUGH WILL 
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WITH A 
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE 
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AREA 
ALONG 28N THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODEL HAS HAD SOME DIFFICULTY IN 
FORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.  THE CURRENT MODEL DOES NOT 
LOOK CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN AND DOES NOT INTENSIFY THE LOW MUCH BUT 
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND HAVE 
DEVELOPED THE LOW MUCH MORE INTENSELY.  AT LEAST THE LOW SHOULD 
BE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITHOUT MUCH DEVELOPMENT 
AT THIS TIME.

NOTHING MUCH ELSE OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
  
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL