000 AGXX40 KNHC 100604 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG SWLY MID FLOW OVER THE SW ATLC TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 73W MOVING ENE 40 KT. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE PLAINS AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES EWD. SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 34N35W WITH A LARGE TROUGH S OF 25N E OF 40W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A FRONT LIES OVER THE ATLC WATERS FROM NEAR 31N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN DISSIPATING SW TO 14N82W. ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER S CAR MOVING E WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS W OF FRONT. ATLC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING STRONG ELY TRADES E OF 60W. LATER DAY 1 PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS WASHING OUT WITHOUT COLD SOURCE. SHORTWAVE OVER SW ATLC MOVING TO 65W. ERN ATLC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 STATIONARY FRONT OVER ATLC GRADUALLY WEAKENING. 1033 MB HIGH MOVES OFF CAR COAST MAINTAINING STRONG NE WINDS W OF FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALL AREAS E OF 90W. FOR DAY 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MID LEVELS MOVES TO 55W WHILE REX BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS E OF 45W. NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING E INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NW CARIB. ON SURFACE DAY 2 DISSIPATING FRONT OVER CENTRAL ATLC SEPARATES OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS W OF 60W FROM ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS MOST AREAS DAY 2 EXCEPT W OF 90W OVER GULF WHERE WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL ATLC DEEPENS AS NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADS S ALONG 50W. SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO DISLODGE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER E ATLC. LARGE AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO MS VALLEY WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NW CARIB SLIDES WWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. SUPPORT ALOFT FROM W AND LACKS ANY COLD AIR. OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WEAKENING SLOWLY W OF 55W WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE WHILE ATLC TRADES DECREASE. FOR DAY 4 FULL LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE OVER E CENTRAL ATLC WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 65W. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MS VALLEY MOVES E TO 80W BUT WITHOUT MUCH COLD AIR BEGINS TO WEAKEN. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER NRN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE COLD AIR. ON SURFACE DAY 4 WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN GULF WITH 1024 MB HIGH FOLLOWING OVER SE TX. WINDS OVER GULF REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO 60W WITH WINDS E OF 70W STILL 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN SOME WITH DECREASING GRADIENT AND ATLC TRADES REMAIN WEAK. FOR DAY 5 LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER ERN ATLC ALONG 35W WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BULGING NWD ALONG 55W. OVERALL MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES W AND NW OVER CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINING N OF REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO CENTRAL ATLC AND GETS SUPPORT FROM MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W..THUS WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT E OF 60W. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE W OF FRONT AND OVER GULF. NE WINDS INCREASE OVER NW CARIB DAY 5 BUT CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. ATLC TRADES S OF 20N LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG