000 AGXX40 KNHC 200822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE ERN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW PORTION AS AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA ADVECTING STRONG NW CAA. BOTH BUOYS 42001 AND 42003 IN THE MIDDLE GULF ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF JUST RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 23 KT. BUOYS JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20-22 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 27N AND 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE E GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 4-6 FT EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW GULF WHERE SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THROUGH TUE...AND TO E OF 90W WED THEN DECREASING THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. LIGHT NLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE GULF E OF 90W...EXCEPT FOR THE SRN SECTION THU AND FRI WHERE NLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT. THE FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL BE LIGHT NE-E ABOUT 10 KT THU AND FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY FRI WITH SEAS DOWN TO 1-3 F T OVER THE NW GULF. LINGERING N SWELL OF 5 FT MAY BE SEEN OVER S PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF INTO FRI. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 29N67W BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH SW THROUGH 26N70W TO NEAR THE E TIP OF CUBA. LIGHTS WINDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2340 LAST NIGHT. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED...THEN SLOWLY MOVE E TO A PSN FROM 31N67W TO VICINITY OF WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI THU AND FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW PRES FORMING NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH...MOST LIKELY N OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTITY AS WHERE IT EXACTLY IT FORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 080) THROUGH LATE WED WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING AS A TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTS BETWEEN THE SQUEEZE PLAY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL ADJUST CURRENT HEADLINE OF EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS TO N OF 29N W OF 77W FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT TO POSSIBLY COVER PART OF WED MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...NW 10-15 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TUE OVER THE FAR WRN PART AS THE LOW GETS GOING. E OF THE TROUGH...S-SW 10-15 KT N OF 23N AND SE-S 10 KT S OF 23N WILL BECOME SE-S 10-15 KT TODAY INCREASING TO S-SW 20-25 KT N OF 22N AND TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N ON TUE. THE WINDS N OF 22N SHIFT E OF AREA OF WED...AND S OF 22N WINDS WILL BE SLY 15-20 KT BECOMING E-SE 15-20 KT THU AND FRI. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT N OF 22N E OF THE TROUGH TUE AND WED... AND TO 6 FT S OF 22N. ON THU AND FRI SEAS E OF THE TROUGH WILL RANGE FROM 5-8 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED OVER THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE A QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY NW OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE MORE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG SHOT OF NW CAA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES SWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT WINDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL SHARPLY INCREASE 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING OF GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH THESE WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE STRONG BUILDING HIGH FROM THE N I CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE S/CENTRAL PART WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU ...THEN BECOME MAINLY E 15 KT FRI. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD UP TO 14 FT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE STRONG NW FLOW. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUM OF 14 FT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS SUGGESTS THAT ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF FORECAST WATERS STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS SW INTO THE NRN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC (ZONE 087) TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY TRADES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH MORE OF AN INCREASE EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS HIGH THEN BUILDS MORE SWD. NWW3 INDICATES AN ELY SWELL TO MAX OUT AT 7 OR 8 FT TUE AND WED...THEN MOSTLY 8 FT THU AND FRI OVER THE NE SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...HOWEVER...NO SURFACE LOW PRES IS PRESENTLY BEING ANALYZED WITH THIS WEATHER. CONTRARY TO WHAT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IMPLYING THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL HOLD OFF IN INTRODUCING IT IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WAIT TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO STRONG NW SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DISCUSSED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE