000 AGXX40 KNHC 171817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF N OF CUBA AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE UP TO 20 KT N TO NE FLOW IS ONGOING. THE RELATIVE CALM PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. BY SUN HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS FAR S AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WITH A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EXTENT OF THE GULF STARTING SUN...AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WRN GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE NLY WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF TOWARD MID WEEK BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW NEAR THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE COASTS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL INTO SUN. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW STRONG NLY FLOW ALMOST TO PANAMA W OF 78W STARTING SUN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FORECAST WINDS FOR MID WEEK TO 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACES IF UPCOMING MODELS RUNS ARE CONSISTENT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE SLIGHT INCREASE OFF VENEZUELAN COAST AND TROP N ATLC AS HIGH PRES INCREASES OVER ATLC AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE E COAST BY LATE SUN. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT 31N74W TO 22N79W MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD. THE FRONT WILL BE 31N72W TO 22N78W TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 31N69W TO ERN CUBA BY LATE SAT. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES E OF THE AREA IS DRIFTING W. SLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY BY LATE SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW SUN. THE BIG CHANGE WILL START LATE SUN INTO MON AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE E COAST. MOST MAJOR MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS N OF THE BAHAMAS BY MON...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION. FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH FAIRLY STRONG NW WINDS...AGAIN FLIRTING WITH GALE FORCE...OFF THE COAST TUE INTO WED BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND THE STRONG HIGH PRES FURTHER W. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN