000 AGXX40 KNHC 130614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON NOV 13 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DELMARVA IS MOVING NE. IT'S ABOUT AS TIGHT A CIRCULATION SEEN IN A LONG TIME. A DUAL CENTERED MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. THE ONLY CENTER OF CONSEQUENCE TO OUR REGION IS NEAR 29N50W ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL POSITION. A NEW LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EWD. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK TRPCL WAVE WAS ALONG 63W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW WAS NEAR 29N50W UNDER THE MID LEVEL CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N68W TO 26N80W THEN STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF TO 20N93W. A WEAK HIGH 1022 MB WAS OVER MS/AL MOVING E. LATER DAY 1 THE DEEP CYCLONIC CENTER OFF THE DELMARVA WILL SOON GET KICKED OUT AS THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DUAL CENTERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING OVER THE NW GULF AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 A WEAK 1009 MB LOW WILL DRIFT E TO NEAR 28N47W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS THE AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED OVER THE ATLC WATERS. MOST AREAS WINDS LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR DAY 2 CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS S OVER THE NE ATLC AND ABSORBS THE THE DUAL CENTERS TROUGH. A CLOSED RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE N ATLC ALONG 55W WHICH WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO ADVANCING TROUGHS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW SETS UP W OF 80W AS THE TROUGHS HEAD NE OFF THE NE US COAST. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GFS PERSISTS ON SHOWING A WEAK LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N43W. THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS A WEAK PRESENCE BACK TO THE SW ATLC. THE WEAK LOW 1010 MB REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 28N48W. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SIMPLIFIES INTO THREE LARGE FEATURES DAY 3. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC..A BLOCKING CLOSED RIDGE ALONG 50W AND A STRONG DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS LAST SYSTEM LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST WITH NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EVEN GUST TO GALE FORCE AS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW MOVES OVER THE MID SOUTH. GFS STILL HAS A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N45W. THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS MORE LIFE WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT. FOR DAY 4 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS VORTICITY GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF NEAR 28N58W. THE CENTER WILL MOVE LITTLE STUCK UNDER THE LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 30 W TO 70W. THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ENE OVER THE TN VALLEY DAY 4 LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES E OF FL WITH GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT MAINLY N OF 28N. A WEAKENING HIGH 1021 MB DIGS S OVER THE SW GULF AND KEEPS WINDS OVER THE GULF IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING OVER THE SW CARIB AND MOVES IT NW. THE MODEL CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL ATLC LOW MOVING IT TO NEAR 15N48W. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGEST E OF 50W AND WEAKER BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. FOR DAY 5 MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS NNE INTO SE CANADA WHILE THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO 80W. THE CUTOFF LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG SW FLOW OF THE ERN US TROUGH AND BEGINS TO MOVE NWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT RUNS OUT OF STEAM OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS A LOW OVER THE SW CARIB AND ONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N49W..SO MAYBE HURRICANE SEASON AIN'T OVER YET. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG