000 AGXX40 KNHC 251555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM WED OCT 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER SW WATERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS ELY WINDS RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. NE OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH WINDS ARE NE-E 15-20 KT SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. HIGH PRES OVER SW GA ATTM STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AND OFF CAROLINAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE THU. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME...PERHAPS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TX COAST AT 09Z FRI. MODELS HAVE NOW SPED UP THE PATTERN CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS. EXPECT NLY 20-30 KT AGAIN BEHIND THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WITH GFS HINTING AT MINIMUM GALE BRIEFLY W CENTRAL WATERS FRI. WILL GO 30 KT MAX FOR NOW AND MAX SEAS TO 11 FT SW WATERS BEHIND FRONT. ATLC...SLOWING COLD FRONT 28N55W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM WILL MOVE TO EXTREME SE PORTION DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. POST FRONTAL RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY PARENT HIGH PRES CENTER MOVING E OFF CAROLINAS 12Z THU AND PASSING N OF BERMUDA FRI WITH SW FLOW INCREASING AGAIN NW ATLC WATERS. UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WHILE THE PARENT TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED W INTO E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 45W IS QUITE CONVECTIVE TODAY AND QSCAT CONFIRMS 20-25 KT PREVIOUSLY PROGGED E OF WAVE AXIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX SEAS...THUS I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W SEEMS TO BE ONLY DRIFTING W...UNUSUAL...BUT CYCLONIC 15 KT WIND SHIFT STILL NOTED IN QSCAT WINDS. WINDS ALONG N COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE INCREASED TO NORMAL 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY 10-15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT. OVER THE NW WATERS...FRONTAL TROUGH FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE IS STILL CONVECTIVE WITH NE-E 20 KT WINDS AND N SWELLS TO 9 FT N OF THE DECAYING BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT TONIGHT. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW WATERS MIDDAY SAT WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT BRIEFLY SAT AFTERNOON. ELY WINDS AND SEAS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY PROGGED INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO MON ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON