000 AGXX40 KNHC 230536 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON OCT 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT APPEARS TO NOT BE MAKING MUCH SWD MOVEMENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB DOES APPEAR TO BE BUILDING NWD OVER THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC TURNING AT MID LEVELS IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CARIB IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COINCIDES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD AT MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WAVE ALONG 50W HAS FAIRLY GOOD CYCLONIC CURVATURE BUT NO SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE GULF FROM N CENTRAL FL SW TO 22N97W. LATER DAY 1 A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE SWD ALONG 85W LOWERING THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 70W. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EWD TO THE MID ATLC WHILE A MID LEVEL HIGH LIES OVER THE SW GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE MAIN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE NW BAHAMAS AND BACK OVER THE SE GULF. NE WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE CARIB AND TRPCL ATLC WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR A RAPID EXIT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W. MID LEVEL RIDGING INTENSIFIES ALONG 95W AND OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A POLAR HIGH 1023 MB WILL MOVE ALONG THE N GULF COAST SLOWLY EWD. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO BE A PROBLEM OVER THE GULF AND ATLC W OF 55W. WINDS OVER THE NW CARIB INCREASE TO 20 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO 20N. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK OVER MID OCEAN WITH CARIB AND ATLC TRADES MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALONG 90W TO 95W WITH MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EWD TO 60W. LIKEWISE THE E CENTRAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EVEN STRONGER ALONG 35W. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIE W TO E ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE POLAR HIGH CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES TO THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N55W TO 20N70W WITH WINDS DECREASING JUST A BIT BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS IN W OF 90W AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB AND TRPCL ATLC WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. FOR DAY 4 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOING TO BE A WEATHER MAKER OVER THE MIDWEST AND ERN US WITH MARGINAL AFFECT ON OUR REGION S OF 31N. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TO ALONG 55W WITH THE ERN ATLC RIDGE REMAINING ALONG 35W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE GFS MODEL DOES SHOW A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE TX GULF COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT DON'T LOOK THAT STRONG SINCE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY N OF 31N. THE OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 30N72W WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING E TO 31N48W BACK TO 20N65W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SWLY 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. GULF AND CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AS WELL AS ATLC TRADES. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE NE COAST..IT WILL LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COAST SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVERS MOST OF OUR REGION STRETCHING FROM THE SRN GULF E OVER THE NRN CARIB AND E OVER THE SUBTRPCL ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 LOOK FOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF NE FL. WINDS OVER THE GULF INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGH DROPPING INTO SE TX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST N OF 25N AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD AND NLY WINDS N OF 25N WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF COMING BACK TO LIFE ALONG 30N E OF 65W AND ELY TRADES INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 20N. EVEN TRADES OVER THE CARIB INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MOSTLY MODERATE LEVELS DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG