000 AGXX40 KNHC 220510 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN OCT 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR SEWD TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER AND MID PLAINS MAY BE TURNING MORE ELY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WITH SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE GULF AND ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO FROM 30N60W SW TO THE W CENTRAL CARIB. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ONE TROPICAL WAVE WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALONG 46W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANEOLA SW TO NICARAGUA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W SW TO CENTRAL FL THEN BACK TO LA AND SE TX. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVER SE TX MOVING SEWD. LATER DAY 1 MAIN THRUST OF THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE EWD WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING S OF 30N. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS WWD TO 80W. ON THE SURFACE THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WITH NLY WINDS TO 25 KT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 2 THE BIG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST GETS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHARPENS THE TROUGH AND LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 70W. THE WEAKNESS IN THE CARIB MOVES TO THE WRN CARIB WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGES HOLD OVER THE SW GULF AND ERN CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT MOVES E OF FL THEN BACK ACROSS THE SE GULF. A 1026 MB POLAR HIGH OVER ERN TX IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN A PROBLEM BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE BIG PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ALONG 95W AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS NWD. LIKEWISE THE ATLC RIDGE RELOCATES TO 25N43W AND ALSO BUILDS NWD ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE MOVING TO 31N64W TO SE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC AND GULF AS WELL AS NW CARIB. THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN SOME E OF 50W AND ELY TRADES INCREASE SOME E OF 50W. REMAINDER OF CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR DAY 4 RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO 55W WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE W OF 70W. THE MID ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO 40W BLOCKED BY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME E ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD POLAR FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO 31N53W 20N70W. THE POLAR HIGH LOOSES LITTLE STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TO THE SE COAST. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEGIN TO DECREASE E OF 85W WHILE REMAINING 20 KT W OF 85W IN RETURN FLOW AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK E OF 50W WITH ELY TRADES MOSTLY MODERATE. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 A NEW STRONG POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 26N AND 33N REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 20N COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W WITH THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDING ALONG 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD FRONT BEGINS TO FIZZLE OUT NEAR 31N45W 22N60W WITH 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. THE OLD POLAR HIGH NOW 1019 MB MOVES TO 30N72W. WINDS OVER THE GULF WEAKEN E OF 90W BUT REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER ERN TX. CARIB WINDS RETURN TO NORMAL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH ELY TRADES E OF 55W S OF 20N MOSTLY MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG